Hoarding rice, fleeing the capital by bus or vowing to defend their new military leaders, many in Niger prepared this weekend for a deadline imposed by the 15-member bloc of West African nations to to the country’s junta to relinquish power.
But that deadline to restore democracy or face military action expired on Sunday.
After rebel soldiers detained Niger’s democratically elected president on July 26, the Economic Community of West African States, or ECOWAS, issued an ultimatum to the junta, raising fears of a regional conflict in a part of Africa that include some of the world’s poorest countries and are already plagued by Islamist insurgencies, widespread food insecurity and the dire effects of climate change.
But the ultimatum also rallied many Nigeriens behind their new military leaders. On Sunday, tens of thousands of defiant junta supporters flocked to the largest stadium in the capital, Niamey, voicing their anger against ECOWAS and chanting the name of the military officer who claims to be in charge, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani.
West African officials said they would only use force as a last resort, and most analysts said a conflict appeared unlikely, at least in the near term. But ECOWAS military officials say they have a plan for an intervention, if necessary.
“Democracy must be restored, through diplomacy or force,” said Gen. Christopher Gwabin Musa, the Nigerian chief of defense staff, on Saturday in a telephone interview.
But the mutineers holding the president, Mohamed Bazoum, say they will resist any effort to remove them from power, leaving the future of Niger – and its people – hanging in the balance.
Asmana Rachidou, 33, a father of six, was shopping for milk powder and packets of rice in downtown Niamey, Niger’s capital, on Saturday. Prices have risen since ECOWAS imposed financial sanctions on the country. “If ECOWAS strikes, it will be over for all of us, not just for the military,” Mr. Rachidou said.
Mr. Bazoum, a key Western ally who was elected in 2021, has refused to step down, and military officials in charge have so far ignored calls for his release. They also rejected threats by the United States and the European Union to cut ties, instead turning to two neighboring countries, Burkina Faso and Mali, which have also had coups in recent years and have since moved more near Russia.
On Sunday, Mr. remained stranded. Bazoum is with his family in their private residence without electricity or running water, according to a friend and adviser to the president who requested anonymity to discuss the president’s situation. Nigeria, which supplies about 70 percent of Niger’s electricity, suspended its energy supply, throwing much of the country into darkness. Presidential guards confiscated his cellphone SIM cards on Saturday, according to the friend, so Mr. Bazoum to the outside world as he did in the first days of his captivity.
The stalemate in Niger has also left uncertain the future of more than 2,500 Western troops stationed in the country for counter-terrorism purposes, including about 1,100 Americans. Unlike neighboring countries, including Burkina Faso and Mali, where groups affiliated with Al Qaeda and Islamic State have carried out hundreds of attacks and now control large swathes of territory, Niger has been better, with civilian deaths are decreasing this year.
Modou Diaw, a humanitarian worker who traveled to Niger last month, said he was able to visit places that were previously impossible to reach because of insecurity. “The situation is definitely improving,” said Mr. Diaw, vice president for West Africa at the International Rescue Committee, an aid organization, adding, “All these victories are now threatened by this situation.”
The conflict could also send millions of Nigeriens into poverty and instability, as their country relies on foreign aid for 40 percent of its national budget.
However, this weekend, hundreds of young people expressed a defiant tone in downtown Niamey, vowing to defend the junta against any foreign intervention. On Saturday, they patrolled the city’s roundabouts, checking vehicles for evidence of foreign interference and espionage, acting on a warning from the junta of such activity.
Many Nigeriens, as a sign of patriotism, have also set the country’s tricolor flag as their profile picture on the WhatsApp messaging platform.
But other Nigeriens are making plans to hunt or even flee the capital. On Saturday, residents of Niamey flocked to shops to stock up on cooking foods, such as rice and cooking oil, in case of military intervention. Middle-class families, unable to turn on their air-conditioners during one of the hottest seasons of the year, rush to buy mosquito nets to set up camps in their backyards.
And many others, expecting fighting in Niamey, fled the capital to other parts of Niger. Minata Abid, 22, a student studying human resources at the University of Niamey, left the bus on Friday night with her twin brother and only a few of their belongings — packed in two suitcases — after their mother posts on social media about a possible military intervention and ordered them to go home.
They arrived Sunday in Arlit, about 500 miles northeast of Niamey, happy to see their family again but worried about when they could return to school, Ms. Abid. “I’m worried about my future,” he added.
General Musa, the Nigerian military officer, said ECOWAS countries want a peaceful resolution of the situation and are not warmongers.
“There is no need for war. This will bring more destruction,” he said. Referring to Niger and Nigeria, General Musa added, “Culturally, religiously, we are almost the same. It’s like fighting your brother.”