The 2023 season will come on conference championship weekend. We could have the simplest and most impressive College Football Playoff field in the event’s 10-year history, we could have complete chaos or we could have something in between, with a little last-minute drama.
Michigan’s win over Ohio State moves the Wolverines up to No. 2 in this week’s rankings and leaves four undefeated Power 5 teams at the end of the week. If Georgia, Michigan, Washington and Florida State win, it’s an easy pick. But the SEC, Pac-12 and ACC games could be extremely competitive and see undefeated teams lose, giving the committee its toughest decision since 2014.
Oregon still probably has the strongest case among the one-loss teams. The Ducks were the committee’s top-ranked one-loss team last week, and if they beat Washington, they will avenge their only loss of the season. Oregon enters the week as a 9.5-point favorite at BetMGM. An Alabama win over Georgia would create the most excitement, but can you put the Crimson Tide ahead of a Texas team that wins in Tuscaloosa?
It is impossible to predict what the outcome will be and what the committee will do. Let’s just appreciate the most consequential conference championship weekend we’ve had in a long time.
DEEP
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The regular season is coming to an end, meaning that teams with losing seasons are essentially locked into their final positions in these rankings, awaiting some minor moves due to games in bowl. But there can still be a lot of change in the upper half. Here’s this week’s Athletic 133.
1-10
The only question in the top nine is where Ohio State will be placed, though this may ultimately be irrelevant to the Playoff picture with other one-loss teams playing in championship games. Here, the Buckeyes fell a few spots but remain the top one-loss team as they have two good wins (Penn State, Notre Dame) and a one-point loss at No. 2 teams. Oregon has dominated opponents in victory but has no wins over current top 20 teams and a one-point loss to No. 3 Washington. Texas beat Alabama and had a one-point loss at Oklahoma but didn’t have a second top-25 win. Alabama, of course, lost to Texas and still has an ugly performance against USF on the resume to get some nice wins (Ole Miss, LSU).
All of those teams can leapfrog Ohio State (and into the CFP) if they win their conference championship games, and they’ll likely still end up in the New Year’s Six game if they lose. Do I think Ohio State can beat those teams today? Maybe not. But we try to emphasize resume and head-to-head in these rankings.
The No. 9 and 10 spots are important for NY6 purposes. Ole Miss really has a jump on Missouri here because of its wins over LSU and Tulane (although the Green Wave are playing their backup QB). While Missouri played Georgia close, its best wins were either Tennessee, Kansas State or Memphis, none of which are in my top 25, and the Tigers also lost to LSU, which Ole Miss beat.
DEEP
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11-25
| Rank | Team | Record | Past |
|---|---|---|---|
|
11 |
10-2 |
14 |
|
|
12 |
10-2 |
12 |
|
|
13 |
9-3 |
13 |
|
|
14 |
9-3 |
15 |
|
|
15 |
10-2 |
9 |
|
|
16 |
9-3 |
17 |
|
|
17 |
11-1 |
20 |
|
|
18 |
12-0 |
22 |
|
|
19 |
11-1 |
21 |
|
|
20 |
9-3 |
18 |
|
|
21 |
8-4 |
16 |
|
|
22 |
9-3 |
23 |
|
|
23 |
10-2 |
24 |
|
|
24 |
11-1 |
25 |
|
|
25 |
10-2 |
26 |
Oklahoma slips to No. 11 after beating TCU. Although the No. 12 Penn State has better losses (Ohio State, Michigan), the Sooners have better wins (Texas, SMU, larger margin of victory over West Virginia), and possibly Oklahoma can get up to No. 10 if Texas wins the Big 12 and SMU wins the AAC. Louisville falls to No. 15 after losing to Kentucky, one spot ahead of Notre Dame due to their head-to-head results.
Tulane beat UTSA and remains the top Group of 5 team at No. 17, leading the clash with No. 25 SMU. Liberty is 12-0, and the early-season win over now-10-win New Mexico State was a quality win. James Madison is 11-1 and bowling, but is ineligible for the New Year’s Six. The big question is whether the CFP committee will put two-loss AAC champion SMU over a potential 13-0 Liberty.
DEEP
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26-50
Not much has changed in this group. Kansas State fell out of the top 25 after a loss to Iowa State. New Mexico State is up to No. 31 after defeating Jacksonville State to improve to 10-3. Kentucky’s win over Louisville moves the Wildcats up to No. 43, while No. 48 Northwestern and No. 49 Maryland moved into the top 25 after wins over Illinois and Rutgers, respectively. Northwestern has a head-to-head over the Terps. Defeated by No. 45 Iowa State is Kansas State but remains behind 9-3 Ohio due to their head-to-head results. Appalachian State defeated Georgia Southern 55-27 to climb to No. 50 with five straight wins to close out the regular season.
51-75
Georgia Tech slips to No. 51 after battling Georgia in an eight-point loss. Cal jumped to No. 55 after defeating UCLA but remains behind Auburn due to the head-to-head. Fresno State drops to No. 61 after ending its regular season with losses to New Mexico and San Diego State, but the Bulldogs remain ahead of Boise State thanks to their head-to-head win. San Jose State moved up to No. 70 after defeating UNLV and closing out its regular season with six straight wins.
76-100
Colorado ended its season losing eight of its last nine games after a 3-0 start, and Deion Sanders’ team was ranked No. 79. Bowling Green rose to No. 83 after defeating Western Michigan and has won five of its last six games, including the lone loss against Toledo. The No. 87 USF improved to 6-6 after defeating Charlotte 48-14, and Alex Golesh put together one of the most impressive seasons for a first-year coach this season. Old Dominion beat Georgia State at the buzzer to finish 6-6 and move up to No. 88. The Monarchs have played 10 one-score games this season. Utah State defeated New Mexico in double-overtime and Louisiana defeated ULM, as both clinched bowl eligibility.
DEEP
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101-133
Both No. 103 Northern Illinois and No. 106 Eastern Michigan to gain bowl eligibility, but EMU remains behind Western Michigan and Central Michigan due to losses against both. Vanderbilt finished as the lowest ranked Power 5 team at No. 114; Baylor is next closest to No. 109. Sam Houston closed its season with a walk-off field goal against Middle Tennessee, which has won three of its last four games after an 0-8 start. UConn won its last two games against Sacred Heart and UMass to move up to No. 120. Tulsa’s win over East Carolina finished the Golden Hurricane at No. 125 and the Pirates finished at No. 128. Kent State finished as No. 133, going 0-11 against FBS competition.
The Athletic 133 Rankings series is part of a partnership with AllState.
The Athletic maintains complete editorial independence. Partners have no control over or input into the reporting or editing process and do not review stories before publication.
(Photo: Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
