A Ukrainian soldier is seen inside an artillery vehicle in his combat position as the Russia-Ukraine war continues in the direction of Kharkiv, Ukraine on November 20, 2023.
Diego Herrera Carcedo | Anadolu | Getty Images
At the start of 2023, hopes are high that a vaunted Ukrainian counteroffensive — expected to launch in the spring — will turn the dial on the war against Russia.
No, and the prospect of a breakthrough in 2024 is unlikely, military experts and defense analysts told CNBC.
They predict heavy fighting is likely to continue into next year but say Kyiv forces are unlikely to launch any counter-offensives. Meanwhile, Russia will likely focus on consolidating the territory it has already seized, particularly in eastern Ukraine.
Away from the battlefield, military experts say the trajectory of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2024 will largely be dictated by the US, Ukraine’s biggest military backer, thousands of miles away, and whether aid runs down — and subsequently — the US presidential election.
“War is an uncertain endeavour,” said retired Army Lt. Gen. Stephen Twitty, former deputy commander of the US European Command, on CNBC.
“Russia can win the war, or the Ukrainians can win the war. And, as you see things now, if you really think about it, what has been achieved this year? Russia has achieved very little, and you can say the same thing for the Ukrainians,” he said.
Ukrainian servicemen take part in a military training exercise not far from the front line in the Donetsk region on June 8, 2023.
Anatolii Stepanov | Afp | Getty Images
“We are now in this situation where if there is no clear winner, there will be a stalemate, and there will be, perhaps, a future frozen conflict. What could tilt the balance, in my view, is if the Ukrainians are not given again and they’re not being refinanced and they’re not getting the equipment and the people that they need. Then this war could tilt to the Russians,” Twitty said.
Expectations were not met
A year ago, Ukraine’s international military support was solid with NATO’s pledge to support Kyiv “as long as necessary” as it defends itself against a Russian invasion launched in February 2022.
Over the summer, however, the challenge facing Ukrainian forces was stark as they struggled to penetrate heavily fortified Russian positions and defense lines along a 600-mile-long front line in the south and east of the country.
After liberating several villages over the summer, Ukrainian and Russian forces have been caught up in largely attritional fighting, with neither side making significant gains.
Ukrainian military officials admitted that hopes and expectations of a successful counteroffensive were not met. However, the Ukrainian leadership said heavy losses had been inflicted on Russian forces and that its forces had made important advances in other areas such as the Black Sea with daring Ukrainian attacks on bases and Russian assets in Crimea this summer prompted the Russian navy to withdraw a number of warships from Sevastopol, giving victory to Kyiv in the battle of the Black Sea.
Panorama of the city from a bird’s-eye view, shot with a drone, covered in snow on December 7, 2023 in Avdiivka, Ukraine.
Libkos | Getty Images
Weather conditions worsen in Ukraine, with mud, freezing rain, snow and ice making reconnaissance operations offensive and challenging. However, heavy fighting continues, and particularly around Bakhmut and Avdiivka in eastern Ukraine where Russian forces are conducting offensive operations and have made some recent, confirmed advances.
Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War noted last week that Russian forces are likely to focus on offensive operations in many sectors of the front, during the most challenging period of the fall-winter season, “in an effort to seize and keep the initiative” ahead of Russia’s March 2024 presidential election.
Meanwhile, ISW was mentioned in a review“Ukrainian forces are establishing and consolidating defensive positions to conserve manpower and resources for future offensive efforts.”
Ukrainian forces adopted a more defensive stance as circumstances dictated; a senior army general warned last week on that front-line Ukrainian troops are facing artillery shortages and have scaled back some military operations due to the lack of foreign aid.
Aid and politics
Another year of war in Europe has undoubtedly drained Western military resources and the political appetite to maintain massive amounts of military aid for Ukraine.
Continued funding for Ukraine is far from secure in 2024 due to the fact that the US presidential election could signal a seismic shift in attitude and support for Kyiv.
In particular, all eyes are on the former US President Donald Trump, the Republican front-runner, who cultivated a close relationship with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin during his presidency.
There are concerns that, given Trump’s previously good relationship with Moscow and the “America First” policy, aid for Ukraine could be quickly stopped. Defense analysts agree that much of the outlook for Ukraine depends on the outcome of the US vote.
“I think it’s important to understand how dependent Ukraine is on the US right now, because it’s significantly more dependent on the US than the EU,” Sam Cranny-Evans, defense analyst at the Royal United Services Institute defense think tank, told CNBC .
“If the election in the US goes in a way that is not in favor of Ukraine, with the fact that the EU does not really step up to the plate – it is the production of ammunition that is very far from what it should be now to give Ukraine of a hope of survival and hope of success — it’s not a very happy prediction for 2024.”
Good chemistry: President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin shake hands during a joint press conference after their summit on July 16, 2018 in Helsinki, Finland.
Chris McGrath | Getty Images News | Getty Images
Rumblings of dissatisfaction with Ukraine’s continued aid have been heard in some Republican quarters for months, as well as in Eastern Europe.
Former US Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker told CNBC that he believes the US and EU aid packages for Ukraine will be approved by January, saying he believes this funding will bring Ukraine down within another years, in the military. Volker said aid packages should include more advanced weapons for Ukraine, however, such as F-16 fighter jets pledged by Norway, Denmark and the Netherlands.
Ukrainian pilots are starting their training on the jets today but it may take several months before they are deployed in Ukraine. The US is not supplying F-16s to Ukraine but has allowed allies to supply their own jets.
“Some things have to change,” Volker told CNBC. “We must remove the restrictions on the weapons that we provide. We still do not provide the longest range missiles and we still do not deliver any Western aircraft to Ukraine. Those things need to happen. And in the opinion “We need to try to give the Ukrainians more of a technological advantage,” he said.
The United States has said it will begin flight training for Ukrainian pilots in F-16 fighter jets.
Anadolu Agency | Getty Images
Volker believes a Trump presidency may not be the disaster for Ukraine that was feared, but said it would make future funding uncertain.
“I doubt that even if Trump is elected he will abandon support for Ukraine in general, because it will be a disaster for US interests, and it will appear to be a failure. You will have these pictures of the Russians which is overflowing in places, and brutality. and so on, so I don’t think he wants that. But it’s not clear exactly what he’s going to do to try to end the war.”
For his part, Trump said he would be able to resolve the war in Ukraine “one day” if he is re-elected, saying he would convince the leaders of Ukraine and Russia to make a deal.
More stalemate or negotiation?
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said last week that its main goal in 2024 is to strengthen the domestic defense industry in the face of uncertain future supplies from its Western allies. It also changed conscription laws, seeing the need to bolster its forces, which were small in size to Russia’s but better trained and equipped. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said last week that the military had requested up to 500,000 additional conscripts but said he needed to hear “more arguments” to support the sensitive and costly proposal.
With both Ukraine and Russia heavily invested in the war, it is unlikely that there will be any negotiations to end the conflict or agree to a ceasefire. Defense analysts argue that neither side wants to go to negotiations unless they are in a position of strength and can dictate terms.
“In the case of a Republican winning the presidential election next year, especially if that’s Donald Trump, who seems to be leading, and [if] funding is reduced significantly, then there will be increased pressure on Ukraine to negotiate,” Mario Bikarski, a Europe and Russia analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told CNBC.
A Ukrainian tank drives on a field on December 7, 2023 in Avdiivka, Ukraine.
Kostya Liberov | Getty Images
“Of course, Ukraine currently does not want to negotiate … but given the circumstances, it will have little choice but to comply with that. And then there also remains the question of whether Russia is willing to negotiate because if there are signs that the West will stop supporting Ukraine, and that Ukraine will be forced into these negotiations, Russia may see this as another window of opportunity to consolidate more victories.”
Defense experts told CNBC that their baseline scenario for 2024 is a continuation of the current intensity of fighting but the same sense of stalemate with neither side able to make significant advances on the ground and take or retake territory.
