An indictment for any alleged crime, the accompanying perp walk and subsequent court hearings can sound like the death knell for a politician on the ballot. But for Donald Trump – hardly a normal politician – it was a gift.
The former president has long weathered chaos and turmoil as he has successfully portrayed himself to his supporters as a victim of the establishment, the “deep state,” liberal forces and the mainstream media.
And Trump’s 2024 presidential campaign quickly benefited from Thursday’s announcement that he would become the first former president in US history to be charged with a crime.
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“The Radical Left — the enemy of the hardworking men and women of this country — has implicated me in a despicable witch hunt,” Trump claimed in one of several fundraising emails sent out. of his campaign committees to supporters in the hours after Thursday. breaking news
“Please make a contribution – of really any amount – to defend our movement from endless witch hunts and WIN the WHITE HOUSE in 2024.”
Former President Trump speaks at a campaign event on March 13, 2023, in Davenport, Iowa. (AP Photo/Ron Johnson)
The Trump campaign announced Friday night that they had raised more than $4 million in fundraising following the indictment announcement. The campaign touted the nature of the donations — with an average contribution of $38 — and a quarter of the money came from first-time donors to the Trump campaign.
Word of Trump’s indictment comes on the eve of the last day of fundraising in the first quarter of the year, and the increase in contributions should boost the former president’s campaign cash numbers when they are likely to be revealed. in the coming days.
Trump is expected in New York City Tuesday after a Manhattan grand jury voted to indict him. He allegedly paid adult film actress Stormy Daniels a hush money in 2016 to keep her quiet before that year’s presidential election because of her claims that she had sexual encounters years ago with Trump. The former president denied sleeping with Daniels and denied falsifying business records to hide the payment.
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In the hours after the media frenzy, nearly all of Trump’s actual and potential rivals for the GOP nomination defended Trump, most charging that Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s move was a “political prosecution.”
The accusation puts the 2024 spotlight firmly back on Trump — where he wants it — and will make it harder for any of his rivals to gain traction, effectively chilling Trump’s position as the clear front-runner in the early stages. of the main battle.
“In the short term, there’s a rallying effect, there’s a fundraising effect, which Trump will absolutely use,” longtime Republican strategist David Kochel, a veteran of multiple presidential campaigns and based in Iowa, told the Fox News.
South Carolina-based conservative consultant Dave Wilson said “it gives Trump a bump in the polls. It’s a natural thing because he’s getting news coverage again.”
With the impeachment coming, Trump has seen his lead in the polls in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis grew in the latest surveys. Among the polls was one from Fox News released Wednesday that indicated Trump’s lead over DeSantis had doubled in the past month, from 15 to 30 points.
While DeSantis remains on the sidelines in 2024, he is expected to launch a campaign next spring or summer and is seen as Trump’s leading rival for the nomination.
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“The rumor that Trump is going to be impeached by the district attorney in Manhattan has helped Republican primary voters a little bit,” said Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts Fox News polls with Democrat Chris Anderson, said earlier this week before news of the indictment. “They see the case as politically motivated, and it revives feelings that Trump is still fighting forces they see as corrupt and out of control.”
Donald Trump is the first former president to be indicted on criminal charges. (Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images)
Shaw said the accusation “rallied Republicans to Trump, making Trump’s claims more legitimate” and making it “harder … for other Republicans to get oxygen.”
Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire’s survey center, said that “based on past performance, the kind of bad news that would normally bury a candidate is likely to fire up Trump’s base.”
But the big question is whether a short-term bounce is sustainable. And as the details of Trump’s alleged involvement with Daniels gain a lot of attention in the coming days and weeks, will the former president experience repercussions among socially conservative voters who play an outsized role? role in Republican politics in Iowa and South Carolina, the first and third states on the GOP’s presidential nominating calendar?
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“It’s a long time – we need to know more,” Kochel said. “Those things will come out over the next few weeks and months as you go through the process. Iowa evangelicals are not going to like hearing about the former president paying a porn star. It has the potential to be negative in the long term. “
But Kochel emphasized that “Trump is very good at going guns blazing when challenged like this.”
Wilson said the question is whether Trump’s initial bump will be “sustainable over time.”
“There’s going to be a question among some evangelical voters if this is something they want to wrap themselves around when it comes to Donald Trump. It’s a turnoff for some people, especially in the evangelical community,” Wilson said.
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In New Hampshire, which finished second in the vote in the GOP primary schedule, Neil Levesque, longtime director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, weighed in.
“This means that Trump will be front and center as we go into the nomination process, for better or for worse. How much excitement and how much attention the other candidates will get is a big question,” said Levesque.
“As this goes on, how much will Republicans say, ‘Is this the best candidate we can put forward against Biden?’ Or they will double down and say, ‘He is part of our tribe, we have to follow him?’ Those are the great unknowns.”
