For nearly a year, talks between the planet’s two biggest polluters, China and the United States, have been suspended as the effects of global warming intensify in the form of deadly heat, droughts, floods and wildfires.
John Kerry, President Biden’s special envoy for climate change, is scheduled to arrive in Beijing on Sunday to restart climate negotiations with the Chinese government. He is scheduled to meet his Chinese counterpart, Xie Zhenhua, and other officials for three days of talks, with the aim of finding ways to work together on climate change despite simmering tensions between the two countries in trade, human rights and other issues. Here’s what you should know:
Why is this meeting important?
The United States and China are the world’s largest economies, the world’s largest investors in renewable energy and, above all, the world’s largest fossil fuel polluters. Together they emit about 40 percent of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Analysts agree that the pace at which the two countries cut emissions and help other countries switch to wind, solar and other forms of clean energy will determine whether the planet avoids the worst consequences of climate change. climate
“There is no solution to climate change without China,” said David Sandalow, a veteran of the Clinton and Obama administrations who is now at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “The world’s two largest emitters should be talking to each other about this existential threat.”
Why are the US and China talking about climate now?
The leaders of the two superpowers are talking again after a year of high tensions.
Beijing suspended high-level diplomatic ties with the United States in August after Representative Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat speaker of the House at the time, traveled to Taiwan, the island democracy that Beijing claims as its territory. Mr. Kerry expressed hope that climate negotiations could be separated from geopolitical rancor, but Chinese officials rejected that idea.
President Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed at a meeting in Bali in November to renew talks between their senior officials. But those plans were derailed earlier this year after a Chinese surveillance balloon was spotted floating over the United States, sparking anger in Washington, prompting Beijing to slow the resumption of talks. .
In recent weeks, Mr. Biden has sent several cabinet secretaries to Beijing in an effort to strengthen ties. Mr. Kerry’s trip follows visits to China by Antony J. Blinken, the secretary of state, and Janet L. Yellen, the Treasury secretary. Commerce Secretary Gina M. Raimondo is scheduled to visit China after Mr. Kerry.
“I think there is a way to resolve, to establish a working relationship with China that benefits them and us,” Mr. Biden said in a CNN interview just recently.
What have the US and China done to address climate change?
The Paris Agreement of 2015, a landmark agreement in which nearly every country agreed to curb emissions and halt dangerous global warming, was in large part because the United States and China struck a deal.
The two put aside decades of sparring over who should cut carbon pollution first, and agreed to act together, albeit at different speeds. That agreement allowed the United States and China to convince other leaders that each country, regardless of its level of wealth or responsibility for causing climate change, has a responsibility to help solve it.
The United States aims to cut emissions by nearly 50 percent this decade and stop adding anything to the atmosphere by 2050. China says its emissions will rise until 2030 before they begin to fall and then stop in 2060.
Both countries are almost on track to meet their near-term goals, analysts said. But there are still big obstacles.
The United States is investing $370 billion in clean energy and imposing regulations to reduce pollution from tailpipes and smokestacks. But at the same time, it has approved new oil and gas projects and failed to meet its promises to help poor countries pay for their own transitions away from fossil fuels.
China leads the world in electric vehicles and generates more energy from solar than all other countries combined. But its consumption of coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, continues to rise dangerously. Construction of coal power plants in China is accelerating recently after leaders watered down their pledge to cut coal and re-emphasize “energy security.”
What does the US want from the meeting?
Mr. Kerry said he hopes to work on at least three issues with China: curbing methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that leaks from oil and gas wells; deforestation; and phasing out China’s coal consumption.
The United States is also encouraging China to set new, stronger climate targets, including an earlier date by which emissions will increase.
In an interview, Mr. Kerry said he hoped to get out some “specific new actions that will get the ball rolling” on reducing emissions.
What does China want?
By most accounts, the Chinese government wants to focus on the targets it has already set and the policies it has in place to get there. It is not eager to push on new goals, especially when it fears that a potential successor to Mr. Biden might backtrack on his promises.
China is known for setting achievable targets and hitting them. It has already surpassed its goal of ensuring that the share of energy derived from non-fossil fuel sources increases by 25 percent by 2030.
“They feel they’ve done a lot,” said Bernice Lee, director of research at Chatham House, a think tank in Britain, and an expert on China’s climate policies. “Clearly they want to point to the high value of renewables as part of the energy mix going up, and they see this as a success.”
But he added, “The question is whether it’s in a position to talk about phasing out coal faster.”
Despite its massive economy and emissions, China is trying to position itself as a protector of the developing world. For nearly two decades, China has been the biggest national emitter, but its average pollution per person is lower than most rich countries, and Beijing has long argued that those countries should shoulder more of the burden. significant burden on cutting greenhouse gases and financing global action. Mr. Xie and other officials are likely to reinforce that message. Chinese officials may also press Mr. Kerry on tariffs imposed by Washington on Chinese-made solar panels.
“The US has little leverage in other areas outside of climate, especially trade, so China is likely hoping that positive climate measures will help ease tensions in other areas,” said by Qi Qin, a China energy analyst for the Center for Research in Energy and Clean Air, an organization headquartered in Finland.
What are the possible consequences?
China watchers are keeping low expectations for this meeting, in part because the Chinese government, like most governments, does not want to appear under pressure to act. Observers do not expect major new announcements on emissions targets or cutting coal.
“I don’t think they want to look like John Kerry came in there and told them what to do,” said Michael Greenstone, an economics professor at the University of Chicago.
One possible outcome is that both countries agree to regular US-China meetings on climate change. Experts say it would be a strong result and could pave the way for the United Nations climate summit scheduled for November in Dubai.
Ms. mentioned Qin, the energy analyst, whose recent visits to Beijing by Mr. Blinken, the secretary of state, and Ms. Yellen, the Treasury secretary, did not bring about major deals. Instead, Ms. Qin, these meetings “may serve as a basis for the summit of top leaders later this year, where we can expect something more visible.”
Chris Buckley contributed reporting.
