Poland has made bold statements about boosting its forces by thousands on the border with Belarus in recent days, as tensions rise between the NATO member and one of Russia’s key allies.
Poland shares a large border with Belarus, a country that Russia used as a staging ground for its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The government in Warsaw has staunchly supported Ukraine throughout the 18-month war — while regularly warning of potential threats from Belarus. It also faces a critical national election in two months.
Here’s a look at what caused the latest escalation of tensions in the area.
Why is the tension rising again?
Last week, two Belarusian helicopters violated Polish airspace, raising anxiety in the region. Two days later, Poland’s prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, warned against “provocations” and “sabotage actions” from Belarus by relocated Wagner fighters, which he said numbered at least 4,000. At the same time, Poland’s Border Guard sent a request to the Defense Ministry for an additional 1,000 soldiers to reinforce the border.
On Wednesday, the ministry approved doubling that number, saying 2,000 soldiers would be deployed and bring the total number of troops there on active duty to 4,000.
Poland’s defense minister, Mariusz Blaszczak, continued on Thursday. He told the public broadcaster Polish Radio that an additional 6,000 troops are “in reserve” beyond the 4,000 on active duty. The reserve troops “will improve their skills in the garrisons that have been recreated in the east of our country,” the minister said.
Is it just about the war in Ukraine?
Polish authorities said the troop deployments were aimed at thwarting both the threat from Wagner and from migration – a hot-button issue for the far-right government. Critics of the Polish government suggest that politics could be at play before the upcoming elections.
Opponents of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party, PiS, have long accused the government of terrorizing the Belarusian border for domestic political gain.
In November 2021, Polish and European authorities accused the long-time autocratic leader of Belarus, Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, of luring migrants from the Middle East and Africa with flights and visas and then pushing them away in Poland to try to destabilize the country and gain diplomatic leverage.
To boost its image as a staunch defender of Polish sovereignty, authorities described the migrants as part of a “hybrid war,” sent 15,000 troops to the border and built an 18-foot razor-wire-topped wall on 115 miles of the border. Rights groups accused the authorities of beating and pushing the migrants back to Belarus.
Now, facing a tight general election in October, the ruling party has revived the border issue in recent weeks, citing the presence of Wagner’s mercenary fighters in Belarus as a serious threat to Poland, which it views by the opposition and some independent analysts as a pre-election stunt to rally the party’s nationalist base.
“It seems that Law and Justice is looking for help from the Wagnerites because of the fear of the election,” Donald Tusk, the leader of the main opposition party, Civic Platform, said last month.
On Thursday, Mr. Blaszczak, Poland’s defense minister, said the continued leadership of his party, Law and Justice, was the “only guarantee” if the country wanted to have the strongest land force in Europe.
What does Belarus say?
On Thursday, a senior Belarusian official accused the country’s “Western neighbor” of “trying to escalate tensions” with “provocative statements” about “imaginary threats from the east.”
“These incredible pretenses were used to strengthen the militarization of Poland and the Baltic states,” said official Aleksandr Volfovich, according to Belta, the state news agency of Belarus.
Russian officials did not directly respond to the latest border developments. However, Russian Defense Minister Sergei K. Shoigu said on Wednesday that existing threats to Russia’s security are “related to the militarization of Poland.”
Andrew Higgins, Anatol Magdziarz and Cassandra Vinograd contributed reporting.
