Pakistan’s government named a caretaker prime minister on Saturday, a move that kicks off preparations for the country’s next general election and comes amid a year of political turmoil.
The close ties of the new leader, Anwar-ul-Haq Kakar, to the country’s powerful military reinforce its dominance in Pakistani politics, sending a clear message: After a year of political turmoil that challenged authority of military leaders, they have a firm hand on the wheel.
“He is undoubtedly a choice of the establishment,” said Khalid Mahmood Rasool, a political analyst and newspaper columnist, referring to the military establishment.
The term of the outgoing government, led by Shehbaz Sharif, who is also close to the military, ended on Thursday. In Pakistan, when the government’s term ends, a caretaker must be established to oversee the next general election.
The appointment of Mr. Kakar comes amid growing speculation that the elections – once expected to be held this fall – are likely to be delayed until next spring at the earliest. It also follows a dramatic week in Pakistani politics.
Last Saturday, a former prime minister, Imran Khan, was arrested and sentenced to three years in prison after being found guilty in a corruption case. The arrest is a climactic twist in a year-long political showdown between the former leader, who was ousted in April 2022 in a no-confidence vote, and the military, which he accuses of orchestrating his downfall. Military leaders deny those claims.
In the year since Mr. Khan in the military and out of office, he proved that he is still a force to be reckoned with in Pakistani politics. At rallies and marches across the country, he drew thousands of his supporters into the streets, where he criticized military leaders for the tight grip on power they wielded behind the scenes of the struggling democracy.
The military responded with a shocking crackdown on his supporters who had all shunned his party in recent months – a campaign that ended with Mr. Khan last week and showed that even severe public disobedience cannot dislodge Pakistan’s military.
In his belief, Mr. Khan is barred from running for office for five years, officials said last week. Mr. is currently appealing. Khan his sentence in a heated legal battle that will determine his — and the country’s — political future. He is facing a slew of other court cases that he has described as little more than political vendettas.
Mr. Kakar will be sworn in as interim chief minister within a week, officials said.
Normally, elections must be held within 60 to 90 days of the dissolution of Parliament. But doubts are growing that the country will go to the polls by that deadline.
Last week, outgoing government officials announced that new electoral boundaries based on the latest census must be drawn before the country holds its next general election. That process is expected to take six months or more.
On Tuesday, when asked on a local television news segment whether elections would be held at the end of the year, the outgoing interior minister, Rana Sanaullah, said: “In a straightforward answer: no.”
Delaying the election would benefit the military establishment, analysts say, by giving more time for the country’s heated political climate to cool before its 241 million citizens head to the polls.
“If the election is delayed for an extended period, it could lead to political blowback that could complicate both the political and economic dimensions,” said Mr. Rasool. “The fate of Imran Khan will significantly affect the evolving political environment and public support.”
The legacy of Mr. Sharif, the outgoing prime minister and the younger brother of Nawaz Sharif, who has served as prime minister three times, appear to be in the mix, analysts said.
Mr. Sharif said his greatest achievement was saving the country from economic default by successfully negotiating a $3 billion bailout from the International Monetary Fund. However, he left in his wake a struggling economy, high inflation and devastation from last year’s devastating floods.
He also faces a tough balancing act in trying to keep his diverse political coalition intact. The image of Mr. Sharif by engaging in questionable legal and administrative maneuvers to resolve court cases of his family and allies, analysts said.
Critics say his government has failed to protect civil liberties, facilitated the military’s political influence, and allowed crackdowns against Mr. Khan, jailing its key leaders and thousands of its workers.
The interim prime minister, Mr. Kakar, is from one of the country’s least populated provinces, Balochistan, and enjoys good support across the country’s political divide. Analysts say Mr. Kakar’s political and religious views lean toward the center-right, which contributes to his credibility within religious groups and religio-political parties.
“He is a seasoned political activist, is media savvy with good public relations skills,” said Salman Javed, a director of the Islamabad-based Pak Afghan Youth Forum. “He worked with almost every party in some capacity.”