China has steadily stepped up military pressure on Taiwan over the past year, sending jets, drones, bombers and other planes further afield and in greater numbers to expand an intimidating presence across the island.
China’s naval ships and aircraft have been approaching the edge in Taiwan’s territorial waters and airspace, probing the island’s surveillance and trying to wear out its military planes and ships. Chinese forces also operate more frequently in the skies and waters of the island’s eastern coast, which faces the Western Pacific. China’s increased presence there signals its intent to dominate the vast sea that could be important for the island’s defenses, including for securing potential aid from the United States in a conflict, said the experts.
Beijing claims that Taiwan is its lost territory that should accept reunification, preferably peacefully, but by force if Chinese leaders deem it necessary. It has taken advantage of moments of heightened tension in Taiwan to step up military activities around the island, and it could make another show of force in the coming days, when Taiwan’s vice president Lai Ching- tea The united state.
Mr. is leaving Lai on Saturday to Paraguay, and scheduled stop in the United States going there and back. Beijing views such transits to the United States as an affront to its assertion that Taiwan is not an independent state. Mr. Lai is also the presidential candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party, which supports Taiwan’s insistence on separate status, a position Beijing has condemned as “separatism.”
Almost daily, the Chinese send sorties to Taiwan involving an increasingly diverse and sophisticated array of aircraft. They now frequently cross the median line in the Taiwan Strait, effectively erasing what had been an informal border between the two sides until a few years ago. Such moves could shorten the time Taiwan needs to respond to a surprise surge, said Chang Yan-ting, a retired deputy commander of Taiwan’s Air Force.
“China wants to seize air supremacy,” he said in an interview. “In the past, there was a buffer, our median line in the Taiwan Strait, and that provided enough warning time and strategic depth. Now it’s gone, it’s gone.”
Taiwan’s defense ministry said Thursday it had detected 33 Chinese military aircraft near the island in the past 24 hours, including 10 over the median line — an increase from the previous few days.
Military exercises have increased dramatically since last August, when Nancy Pelosi, then the speaker of the House of Representatives, visited Taiwan. China responded with days of live-fire drills, landing missiles in waters north, south and east of Taiwan, and sending planes over the median line — exercises that some experts saw as underscoring Beijing’s ability to impose a blockade around the island.
Aircraft deployed by China around Taiwan now include planes for aerial refueling and helicopters for anti-submarine warfare, and a large number of military drones, it said. Ou Si-fu, a researcher at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, which is under Taiwan’s ministry of defense. That is a sign of China’s growing efforts to project power far from its shores and conduct more sophisticated operations that combine air power with the navy, Mr. Ou said.
Since 2019, Chinese fighter jets, bombers, drones and other military aircraft have regularly entered Taiwan’s “air defense identification zone,” or ADIZ — a buffer area wider than Taiwan’s territorial airspace where planes must identify themselves before boarding and then follow instructions. . (Chinese planes are not.)
Last year, China made more than 1,700 flights into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone, nearly doubling that number by 2021, according to Ben Lewis, a military analyst who maintains a data set on flights using daily reports from Taiwan’s ministry of defense. In the first half of this year, Taiwan recorded more than 850 flights by Chinese forces in the zone, 54 percent more than the number of flights for the same months last year, he said. “The normalization of these activities is the goal,” he said.
The increase in flights does not mean that war is imminent, and few in Taiwan believe that a Chinese invasion is imminent or inevitable. The People’s Liberation Army’s increased activity around Taiwan is better understood as a long-term effort to undermine its security and alertness, experts say.
“The first time they do something it’s ‘Oh, my god! Oh, my god!,’ but after they do it five times, it’s ‘Oh, yeah, it’s routine, no big deal,’” said Kenneth W. Allen, a retired US Air Force officer who researches Chinese air force and its activities around Taiwan. “But trends should be a big deal.”
Taiwan, with its smaller military, seems to have no easy way to push back against the People’s Liberation Army’s aerial encroachment. A large buildup of fighter jets in Taiwan could be costly and vulnerable to attack, and divert funds from purchasing mobile missiles and other weapons that could further deter Beijing.
To help Taiwan, the United States has sold more advanced fighter jets and other military hardware to the island’s government, though deliveries have been delayed. Last month, the Biden administration announced $345 million in military aid for Taiwan and said the weapons would be drawn from the United States’ own reserves, which could help speed up deliveries.
But China’s numeric lead is frightening. It has about 1,900 combat-ready fighter jets, including advanced models, while Taiwan has about 300, quite a few of them older, according to The Pentagon’s latest public assessment of the People’s Liberation Army. It said China’s air force was “quickly catching up with Western air forces.”
Chinese leader Xi Jinping appears determined to maintain this pace of expansion. Last month, he Said at a meeting of the Politburo, a council of 24 senior Communist Party officials, that China’s military modernization goals have entered “a critical period.” A recent one documentary series on Chinese state television, “Chasing the Dream,” portrayed Chinese troops as confident, but willing to die if necessary, in any war.
“If there’s one day I’ll be really proud,” said a pilot in one episode, “I think this is the moment that our motherland is united.”
Responding to China’s ramped-up military activity puts a huge burden on Taiwan’s defense budget. In 2020, Taiwan spent almost 9 percent of its defense budget in tracking and tailing Chinese military planes and ships.
Taiwan stopped regularly sending fighter jets to monitor Chinese flights, and now only does so when the flights look more threatening. However, in January, the defense ministry requested it additional funding of approximately $54 million to cover the costs of dealing with China flights.
Taiwan has “relatively robust” ground-based defense systems, such as radars and missiles, that can counter China’s air intrusions and ballistic missiles, it said. J. Michael Colea security analyst in Taipei.
“It is capable enough to counter limited strikes,” said Mr. Cole, who is a senior adviser at the International Republican Institute. But, he added, “large-scale missile attacks or saturation attacks are likely to overwhelm Taiwan’s air defense systems.”
Last month, Taiwan held an annual exercise to demonstrate its air, land and sea readiness. Lee Rong-teng, a lieutenant colonel in Taiwan’s army, monitored the drills at Taoyuan International Airport, where helicopters and about 180 soldiers took part in the drill to practice repelling an attempted takeover. But he sounded a note of warning.
If there is a real ground battle at the airport, he said, that could indicate that Taiwan has already lost the war in the air. “By the time you use infantry forces, it’s, more or less, over,” he said. “Why? Because if the enemy comes, we will lose our sea and air superiority.”
