Ecuador’s decision to send police officers to the Mexican Embassy to arrest a politician who has taken refuge there has fueled tensions between two countries already at war, but it could prove to be a political boon for the Ecuadorean president. .
President Daniel Noboa is facing flagging approval ratings amid rising violence weeks before a referendum that could affect his prospects for re-election next year. A spat with Mexico, which has suspended diplomatic relations, may be just what he needs.
The politician arrested, Jorge Glas, a former vice president of Ecuador, was sentenced to prison for corruption and has lived in the Mexican Embassy in Quito since December. Then on Friday, Mexico granted him asylum, and Ecuadorean police moved in.
Mr. Noboa’s office said the arrests proceeded because Mexico had abused the immunities and privileges granted to the diplomatic mission, but the message it sent was also consistent with Mr. Noboa’s tough approach to violence and graft in Ecuador.
The 36-year-old center-right leader came to power in November after President Guillermo Lasso, facing impeachment proceedings over embezzlement accusations, called for early elections. Mr. Noboa will be in office until May 2025, the remainder of Mr. Lasso’s term.
Mr. Noboa’s ability to show that he can restore law and order to the country of nearly 18 million could be critical to his re-election, and that means tackling the country’s gangs, as well as corruption within the government that has given way to criminal groups, analysts say.
Many experts say that those political motives appear to explain the embassy arrest, signaling that the president is adamant on impunity.
“He did this to change all the negative talking points that affect him and try to have a conversation in his favor,” said an Ecuadorean political analyst, Agustín Burbano de Lara.
Mr. Glas held various ministerial positions during the presidency of Rafael Correa, a leftist, most notably serving as vice president. In 2017, he was forced from office and sentenced to six years in prison for accepting bribes. Another bribery conviction in 2020 implicated him and Mr. Correa, and both were sentenced to eight years.
Released in 2022, Mr. Glas eventually sought asylum in Mexico, a move that strained relations between Ecuador and Mexico. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ecuador said in March that it requested Mexico’s permission to arrest Mr. Glas.
While Mr. is very popular Newbie, out at the polls whose approval rating has dropped 11 points in recent months, from 85 percent to 74 percent, amid rising violence in Ecuador.
After gang violence engulfed the coastal city of Guayaquil in January, Mr. Novoa of an internal conflict, an extraordinary step taken when the state was attacked by an armed group. He appointed the country’s military, allowing soldiers to patrol the streets and prisons to deal with rising gang violence linked to drug trafficking.
The aggressive response initially reduced violence and brought a certain sense of safety to places like Guayaquil — but the stability did not last. During the Easter holiday, there were 137 murders in Ecuador, and kidnappings and extortion has worsened.
In two weeks, Ecuadoreans will vote in a referendum to allow the government to increase security measures by making prison sentences for some crimes more severe and endorsing an increased military presence. as the law.
Experts say it is too early to say whether Mr. Glas’ arrest will benefit Mr. Noboa at the ballot box, but some Ecuadoreans said Sunday they supported the action.
“Mexico treats Ecuadoreans like idiots, giving asylum to all these convicted people,” said Danilo Álvarez, a 41-year-old salesman from Guayaquil, one of the most violent cities in country.
Ecuador itself once famously granted asylum and protection in one of its embassies. In 2012, when Mr. Correa was president, it did so for the founder of WikiLeaks, Julian Assange, housing him in its London embassy for seven years.
Mr. Álvarez said thieves broke into his house a few years ago, tied his hands and feet and held a gun to his head. It was months before he was able to sleep properly again, he said.
Not all citizens, however, agreed to the arrest.
“This is an act of complete disrespect for international law,” said Delfa Mantilla, 62, a retired teacher. “It seems like something President Noboa did as a product of his rich-boy ego, without empathy.”
Some worry about the effects of the diplomatic dispute for ordinary people. Tens of thousands of Ecuadoreans migrate through Mexico to the United States each year, and the two countries face a surge in transnational crime, with many Mexican cartels operating out of Ecuador.
“I think it’s fine, because Glas should go to jail,” said Mario Zalamar, a 34-year-old commercial engineer. But, he said, “There are thousands of Ecuadoreans now crossing Mexico on foot to immigrate to the United States. And we don’t know how much this will affect them.”
Although many Ecuadoreans support the embassy arrest, Mr. Noboa is likely to deepen a diplomatic rift that could weaken its relations with other countries in the region.
Honduras, Brazil, Colombia and Argentina all rallied around Mexico and criticized the arrest. And the Nicaraguan government announced it was suspending its diplomatic relations with Ecuador, characterizing the arrest as “neo-fascist political barbarity” in a statement shared by the state-run media.
Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the US State Department, said, “The United States condemns any violation of the Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations, and takes seriously the obligation of host countries under international law to respect non-violation in diplomatic missions.”
Mr. Miller called on the two countries to resolve their differences.
José María León Cabrera and Thalie Ponce contributed reporting.
