The military takeover in Niger has upended years of Western counter-terrorism efforts in West Africa and now poses new challenges for the Biden administration’s fight against Islamist militants on the continent.
American-led efforts to bring down terrorist networks around the world have largely succeeded in longtime jihadist hot spots like Iraq, Syria, and Yemen. Not so in Africa, especially in the Sahel, the vast semi-arid region south of the Sahara where groups linked to Al Qaeda and the Islamic State are gaining ground at an alarming rate.
Niger, an impoverished country of 25 million people roughly twice the size of Texas, recently became an exception to that trend.
Terrorist attacks against civilians there have decreased by 49 percent this year, largely due to the training and assistance of French and American troops to Nigerien forces and a multipronged counterinsurgency strategy by the ousted president, Mohamed Bazoum, analysts say. Niger has slowed, but not stopped, a wave of extremists pushing south into coastal states.
Now all that could be at risk if a conflict erupts in the region or the junta orders Western forces, including 1,100 American troops, to leave and three US drone bases – including one run by the CIA – to be closed .
Western-led military operations offer no silver bullet against Islamist militancy in the Sahel, now the epicenter of global militancy. The past decade of French-led operations in the region, involving thousands of troops, has failed to prevent thousands of attacks.
However, the security vacuum in Niger may embolden militants to step up propaganda, increase recruitment of local and even foreign fighters, establish mini-states in remote areas, and plan attacks against in Western countries. Leaving the relatively small American presence would make it harder for military analysts to identify and quickly disrupt threats as they emerge, US officials said.
It could also open the door to Russian influence in Niger in the form of the Kremlin-backed Wagner military company, which already has a presence in neighboring Mali, US officials said.
“The US withdrawal from Niger and closure of its drone bases would be a devastating blow to Western counterterrorism efforts in the Sahel,” said Colin P. Clarke, a counterterrorism analyst at the Soufan Group, a security consulting firm based in New York.
The stakes in the match are quickly rising. Tens of thousands of people have died violently, and 3.3 million have fled their homes, over the past decade in Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso, which are bordering West Africa. With two of them, the situation is rapidly deteriorating. The death toll in Mali doubled last year to around 5,000, while in Burkina Faso it rose 80 percent to 4,000, according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project. On Tuesday, 17 Nigerien soldiers were killed and 20 wounded in an ambush by armed rebels in southwestern Niger.
Violence is spreading from the three landlocked countries to the wealthier countries on the coast of the Gulf of Guinea. Militants from Burkina Faso have carried out attacks in northern Togo and Benin.
Niger is also fighting a separate Islamic State affiliate in the Lake Chad Basin, in the country’s southeast.
“Niger has become a barrier against terrorist groups for coastal countries,” said Ouhoumoudou Mahamadou, who was Niger’s prime minister until the coup and remains one of the Nigerien government officials recognized by the United States. and most African countries. “With weak Niger, there is little possibility of handling this role.”
The International Crisis Group warned that violence could also spread to Ivory Coast, one of the region’s economic powerhouses.
“All the countries in the Gulf of Guinea are very concerned,” said Pauline Bax, deputy director of the Africa program at the International Crisis Group. Amid the turmoil over the coup in Niger, and the potential for Wagner to find a foothold there, the region’s Islamist groups are likely celebrating the opportunity to expand their hold, he said.
Niger has been at the center of American efforts to combat growing Islamist militancy in the Sahel region for a decade, and has become increasingly valued since the coup in Mali.
President Barack Obama ordered the first 100 American troops to Niger in February 2013 to help set up unarmed surveillance drone operations in Niamey, the capital, to support a French-led operation against Al Qaeda and affiliated fighters in Mali.
In 2018, the US military presence has grown to 800 troops and the Pentagon is putting the finishing touches on a $110 million drone base in Agadez, in northern Niger, a major expansion of American military firepower in Africa. The dangers of the growing mission were revealed in October 2017 when a terrorist ambush killed four American soldiers, their interpreter and four Nigerien soldiers.
Niger, however, has remained a key US counterterrorism ally in the region under Mr. Bazoum, the country’s former interior and foreign minister, who was elected in 2021 in Niger’s first peaceful transition of power between two democratically elected who has been president since independence.
American officials praised Mr. Bazoum’s approach, which used counterterrorism raids by American-trained commandos and some level of dialogue with local groups to address their grievances. Fewer people have been killed in Niger in the first six months of this year than in the first half of any year since 2018, according to the armed conflict project.
Since the July 26 uprising, France and the European Union have suspended some aid to Niger. The US secretary of state, Antony J. Blinken, said that American security ties, worth about $500 million since 2012, are also at risk if the putsch is not reversed. The United States has suspended drone training and flights, and restricted its troops to bases. France has also suspended all joint operations with Niger’s military.
On the prospects for restoring Mr. Bazoum with power appearing murky, the Biden administration is weighing two main options, officials said. It could formally declare a coup in Niger, as the administration did when military forces carried out recent takeovers in Mali and Burkina Faso, triggering broader cuts in American aid, including military aid. . Or Washington could stop that assignment, as it did with the military takeover in Chad, and seek an agreement with the junta to continue counterterrorism cooperation.
So far, the situation is relatively peaceful and the administration’s hand has not been forced. But the threat of military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States, the regional bloc known as ECOWAS, and the fading hope of a diplomatic resolution give the Biden administration difficult choices in the coming days. .
US alternatives in the region are limited, officials said. The United States has conducted training exercises in Mauritania, Ghana, Chad and elsewhere in the area. But none of those countries are as centrally located as Niger, or seem likely to accommodate such a large American military presence. “Niger is a critical partner of ours in the region,” Sabrina Singh, a Pentagon spokeswoman, said on Tuesday.
The United States plays primarily a supporting military role in the Sahel to France, a former colonial power. But the junta has cut military ties with France, and recent events have highlighted the failure of France’s counterterrorism partnership, observers say.
Underscoring the urgency of the growing crisis, Gen. Mark A. Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, spoke with his French counterpart on Thursday to discuss the situation in Niger, a spokesman for the general said in a statement without disclosing any details of their videoconference. .
The military takeover is a crushing blow for Western interests in Niger as democracy appears to be taking root in the country despite a history of coups and coup attempts since independence from France in 1960.
One small comfort for the Biden administration, as it tries to balance its rejection of coups with its desire to maintain a security presence in Niger, is that the latest takeover appears to be driven largely by personal or factional differences. than any ideology.
The stunning fall of the Western-backed, democratic government in Niger has revived a debate about whether the US’s heavy-handed security strategy was flawed in the first place.
“We have an over-militarized approach to counterterrorism,” said Alexander Noyes, a political scientist at the nonprofit RAND Corporation. “And it hurts us.”
American aid to countries like Niger would be more effective if it prioritized support for good governance — stronger, more democratic institutions with less corruption — over providing lethal aid, such as drones and Special Forces , said Mr. Noyes.
West African officials have warned that the Wagner mercenary group could move in to fill the void if French troops leave, amid rumors that a Nigerien junta official recently met with representatives from the paramilitary group in Mali, which hosts about 1,500 Wagner operatives to fight an Islamist insurgency.
Attacks against civilians in Mali have increased since the group’s arrival, as have the number of Malian refugees in neighboring countries.
US officials say there is no evidence Wagner helped instigate the military takeover in Niger, but the group is clearly trying to exploit it. “Feel free to call us at any time,” Wagner’s founder, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, said in an audio message aimed at Niger’s junta that was shared last week on Telegram channels associated with the group.
“Niger is the last bastion of hope and security in the Sahel,” said J. Marcus Hicks, a retired two-star Air Force general who led American Special Operations forces in Africa from 2017 to 2019. The idea that we’re leaving is a real tragedy, a vacuum for more bad Russian influence.”
