Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman once compared Iran’s supreme leader to Hitler, but has now green-lit a reconciliation deal intended to usher in a new era of regional prosperity.
As a 29-year-old defense minister, he launched a ferocious attack on Huthi rebels in neighboring Yemen, but now continues in back-channel talks that could ultimately withdrawal of Saudi forces from the conflict.
He has also worked to settle bitter disputes with regional rivals such as Qatar and Turkey, and has even offered the Gulf kingdom as a possible mediator for the war in Ukraine.
Analysts say it points to an evolution of Prince Mohammed, now 37, from erratic disruptor to pragmatic power player.
Dealing with Iran in particular “marks a sea change in his political strategy”, indicating “maturity and a more realistic understanding of power politics in the region”, said Umar Karim, a foreign policy expert. of Saudi at the University of Birmingham.
But it’s too early to tell whether such de-escalation measures will succeed — and how far they will go.
The deal still needs to be implemented with Iran, where embassies will reopen in the second week of May after seven years of severing bilateral ties.
Saudi Arabia and Syria are also in talks over resuming consular services, state media in the kingdom said Thursday, more than a decade after the Gulf kingdom cut ties with President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Riyadh has long openly advocated ousting Assad.
Whatever happens next, Riyadh’s agenda is clear: minimize turmoil abroad to maintain focus on a raft of economic and social reforms at home.
“Our vision is a prosperous Middle East,” said a Saudi official, “because without your region developing with you, there are limits to what you can achieve.”
– ‘Vision’ under threat –
Domestic reforms were the first to help burnish Prince Mohammed’s reputation on the world stage.
On his watch, the once closed kingdom sidelined its notorious religious police, allowed women to drive, opened movie theaters and began issuing tourist visas.
Its deep-pocketed sovereign wealth fund has made a series of high-profile investments in everything from Newcastle United to Nintendo, signaling how its “Vision 2030” reform agenda could move the world’s biggest crude exporter from fossil fuels.
Underlying all this are concerns about ramped-up repression, especially following the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi in the kingdom’s Istanbul consulate.
But Saudi officials have also acknowledged how security threats, particularly from Iran, have jeopardized Prince Mohammed’s grand plans.
This point culminated in attacks in 2019, which the Huthis claimed were backed by Iran, on Saudi oil facilities that temporarily cut crude oil production in half.
Riyadh and Washington have accused Tehran of being behind the operation, which the Iranians deny.
The incident was a game-changer, prompting Saudi Arabia to pursue a more conciliatory path, analysts and diplomats said.
Saudi officials have been deeply disappointed by the tepid response from the administration of then-US president Donald Trump, which they believe undermined the oil-for-security trade-off that has been the basis of the two countries’ partnership for decades.
“The Saudis are surprised that the Americans did nothing to protect them,” said an Arab diplomat based in Riyadh.
“Saudi officials told us, ‘We need to focus on megaprojects,'” the diplomat added, citing a futuristic megacity known as NEOM and a budding arts hub in the northern city of AlUla.
“If a missile hits NEOM or AlUla, there will be no investment or tourism. The sight will collapse.”
– ‘Decreasing temperature’ –
In making up in Iran, Prince Mohammed is not alone.
Neighboring Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates restored full diplomatic relations with the Islamic republic last year.
But the Saudi-Iranian deal is seen as more significant because the two Middle East heavyweights have often found themselves on opposite sides of conflicts — not only in Yemen but also in places including Lebanon and Iraq.
“The kingdom is undertaking a calibrated geopolitical reset that attempts to improve the broader security environment in the region,” said Eurasia Group’s Ayham Kamel.
Anna Jacobs of the International Crisis Group added: “Turning down the heat on Iran is a smart way to lower tensions across the region and ease some of the proxy fights around Saudi Arabia.”
The next step for the implementation of the deal is a meeting between the foreign ministers of the two countries, although it has not yet been scheduled.
Earlier this week, an Iranian official said President Ebrahim Raisi had received a favorable invitation to visit Saudi Arabia from King Salman, Prince Mohammed’s father, though Riyadh had not yet confirmed.
These anticipated meetings will be closely watched as concerns persist that the rapprochement remains fragile.
“The mistrust between Saudi Arabia and Iran runs deep,” Jacobs said, “and both sides need to see positive signals from the other as soon as possible to move forward with the deal.”
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