The massive salvo of Iranian weapons fired at Israel this weekend became a direct confrontation in the countries’ long-standing shadow war, raising fears that the old paradigm of trading nations with carefully measured blows has been replaced something more overt, violent and dangerous.
But as of Monday, Israel had yet to respond to the Iranian attack. Instead of preparing the public for a showdown with its archrival, the government signaled a return to relative normalcy, lifting restrictions on large gatherings and allowing schools to reopen.
Some right-wing Israeli politicians, frustrated by the lack of an immediate response, have argued that Israel needs to strike hard – and soon – or risk losing its deterrence. Other centrist officials argued that Israel should bide its time before responding and use the support it has received from allies and regional actors, who are otherwise angry about Israel’s war on Gaza.
Any strong Israeli response would risk angering President Biden, who has pressed Israel to calm down and the military support Israel would need in the event of a major confrontation. Israel has drawn criticism from the president for dragging out the war in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must now weigh the perceived benefits of retaliation against the risk of further displeasing the president, along with the potential cost – both human and financial – of fighting two wars at the same time.
An Israeli official said of the cabinet discussions, who requested anonymity to discuss security matters, that on Monday several options were being considered, from diplomacy to an imminent strike, but did not provide further details.
In short, the next steps in the conflict remain uncertain.
The nature of Israel’s response, analysts said, could increase or decrease the likelihood of a regional war. And it could improve or damage Israel’s relations with Arab countries that share antipathy for Iran but have been critical of the war in Gaza.
It is also possible for Israel and Iran to simply return to the well-established norms of their shadow war — with Israel assassinating individuals, Iranian proxies firing volleys into Israel and both sides exchanging cyberattacks .
“It’s too early to tell,” said Dana Stroul, who until recently was a senior Pentagon official with responsibility for the Middle East. “From an Israeli security perspective, it’s hard to see how they can tolerate this,” Ms. Stroll. “The question is: What does it look like and how can a clear line and signal be sent to Iran while avoiding World War III in the Middle East?”
If the trajectory of the coming days remains disappointing, the events of the past 48 hours have brought some new clarity to the conflict.
The attack over the weekend, in which Iran sent hundreds of explosive drones and missiles – mostly from its own soil into Israeli territory for the first time – was in retaliation for Israel’s killing of seven officials Iran in Syria this month.
In military terms, Iran’s strikes signaled its willingness to confront Israel directly rather than through the use of regional proxies such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, thereby increasing Israel’s assumptions about Iran’s threshold for risk.
In diplomatic terms, Iran’s strikes and Israel’s staunch defense of them, in coordination with Western and Arab partners, have helped divert international attention from Israel’s war on Gaza, which reportedly that death toll of more than 33,000 prompted accusations, which Israel vehemently denied. , of genocide.
At a time when Israel’s closest allies have become increasingly critical of Israel’s military conduct in Gaza, Iran’s attacks have prompted those partners to work closely with both the Israeli Air Force carried out devastating strikes in Gaza.
“You can see that not only among Arabs but also among western Europeans, Israel’s diplomatic status has improved somewhat because it is a victim of Iran’s aggression, not an aggressor,” said Itamar Rabinovich, a former Israeli ambassador to Washington. “By being a ‘victim,’ it improves your position.”
Analysts said it remained unclear how Israel’s defenses would have functioned without the several days of warning provided by Iran before its attacks over the weekend, which allowed Israel and its allies to important time to prepare. And while Iran has said that any future Israeli “mistakes” will be met with a “much worse” response, that threat remains unproven and vague enough to leave room to maneuver.
If Israel fires back at Iran in a way that plunges the region into war, the goodwill Israel has recently built up with its allies could quickly evaporate, analysts said.
For Iran’s leaders, the strikes, which caused limited damage and critically injured a child, were nonetheless a domestic and diplomatic victory because of the way they allowed Iran to present itself as standing up to Israel.
Domestically, Iran’s leaders have had to face accusations that they have been too passive after previous Israeli attacks on Iranian officials. Analysts said the salvo also reassured Iran’s allies and proxies in countries such as Lebanon and Yemen that Iran was prepared to risk an attack on Israel from its own territory. And, they say, it has allowed Iran to show off rival Middle Eastern leaders, who often publicly criticize Israel while quietly working in its government.
Iran wants to “take the mantle of protector of the Muslim world,” said Narges Bajoghli, an Iran expert at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies in Washington. “They are basically flexing their muscles for regional audiences and at the same time showing the weakness of Arab leaders in the region,” he said. “Arab countries have not confronted Israel in the direct way that Iran has.”
The opposite is true: At least one Arab country, Jordan, was directly involved in repelling the Iranian strikes, and others are thought to have quietly aided Israel either by sharing intelligence or sending gathered data. from missile detection sensors.
Jordan, Israel’s eastern neighbor, has a large Palestinian population and regularly criticizes the war in Gaza. But it still acknowledged that Iranian targets had been “interrupted” in Jordanian airspace and that its military would repel similar attacks in the future.
The announcement is a reminder of how, before the war in Gaza, shared fears over Iran began smoothing Israel’s diplomatic integration within the Middle East as well as allowing greater military coordination between Israel and several Arab countries. , including arms deals and joint training exercises.
For some Israeli analysts, this is why the Iranian attack will further boost Israel’s acceptance in the Middle East, even if its reputation has fallen because of Gaza.
“The full details of how the Sunni Arab regimes helped protect Israel, without doubt saving Israeli lives from Iranian missiles and drones, may not be known for some time. But it is a historic change,” Anshel Pfeffer, an Israeli commentator, wrote in a column for Haaretz, a left-leaning newspaper. “Arab cooperation against the Iranian attack proves that the trend in the region is still towards an Arab-American-Israeli alliance against Iran and its proxies.”
In particular, some hope it could give new momentum to US-led efforts to seal diplomatic ties for the first time between Israel and Saudi Arabia, which seemed close to success before the Gaza war.
Saudi oil refineries came under attack in 2019 from the Houthis, an Iran-backed militia in Yemen. Riyadh seeks greater security cooperation with the United States to ward off similar aggression in the future – an arrangement the US has indicated is likely to take place only if Riyadh also formally recognizes and cooperates with Israel.
But the chances of such a deal remain remote as the war in Gaza drags on and Israel’s right-wing government avoids any discussion about creating a Palestinian state after the conflict – a key Saudi demand.
“Diplomatically, I will take it up and try to revive and stimulate regional cooperation,” said Mr. Rabinovich, the former Israeli ambassador. “But the obstacle remains,” he added. “What are you going to do about the Palestinian issue?”
Gabby Sobelman and Johnatan Reiss contributed reporting.
