This story was adapted from Daniel Kramer’s Mariners Beat newsletter. To read the full newsletter, press here. And subscribe to get it regularly in your inbox.
SEATTLE — Even though the start of Julio Rodríguez’s 2023 season was a blip, Scott Servais offered it might be a good thing in the grand scheme of his player development.
“He’s going to play this game for another 15-20 years, he’s going to struggle again,” the Mariners manager said. “I hate to tell people that, but it will happen. And when it does, you look back at, ‘OK, how did I get out this last time?’ Am I pressing too early? Did I panic a little early?’
“It’s going to pay dividends in the future, but I love him this way when he’s smoking two or three hits every day and hitting the ball out of the ballpark. It’s fun.”
Indeed, Rodríguez swings one of MLB’s hottest bats. He is now 16-for-34 on the homestand, with three homers, seven runs scored and 10 RBI. He was more than worth it win above replacement in this stretch (0.9), per FanGraph, than in the first seven-plus weeks combined (0.7).
First 44 games: .204/.280/.376 (.656 OPS), 0.7 WAR, 94 wRC+, 40.4% hard-hit rate
This homestand (8 games): .471/.486/.853 (1.339 OPS), 0.9 WAR, 264 wRC+, 66.7% hard-hit rate
“I feel happy going through difficult times,” Rodríguez told reporters. “It’s great to be able to go up. And there is certainly a lot of work for people close to me. And I’m excited about where things are going.”
When asked what was behind his spin, Rodríguez put his finger to his lips and preferred not to reveal. But a combination of swing decisions, driving pull-side balls in the air and tapping back with his exceptional back-spinning, opposite-field power are among the main reasons.
Rodríguez struck out 28.9% of the time before going down the order, which was the 24th highest rate among 173 qualified hitters, and up from 25.9% last year. It is more than how than What that proved troubling, as the formula against him became outright: fastballs in his hands early in the counts, which he could do almost no damage, and offspeed/breaking pitches out of the zone when he was caught, leading to non-competitive pursuit. .
Rodríguez’s K rate is 23.8% since going down the order. There’s still a chase in his game, but it’s probably always been there. It’s how he uses that weakness into a strength when the sequence calls for it — hitting a pitcher’s pitch, for example — that makes it a more effective trait.
Rodríguez hit 58.8% of his pull side ground balls, above the 54.9% league average for righty hitters and a tie for just four hits. He’s improved slightly here, but the bigger takeaway is the massive increase in hard-hit rate (anything 95 mph or higher) and its link to injury.
A whopping 18 of his 27 balls in this homestand, the most in MLB since last Monday, and 12 of them were hits, including all three homers.
Behind the scenes, one front-office official described Rodríguez as swinging more north/south than east/west, which perhaps helped him “get into the baseball” better.
“You can’t go up and say, ‘OK, I’m trying to hit this ball in the air,'” Servais said. “Mostly, it’s tied to your swing path and what’s going on there.”
Half of Rodríguez’s 16 hits in this homestand have come to the opposite field, perhaps the clearest sign yet that he’s heating up. A whopping 81 of his 145 hits last year, more than half, came in those directions.
“I feel like that’s where my strengths are,” Rodríguez said. “I feel like I’m really good at that. I like to drive the ball the other way and I feel like that’s what I’m doing … just sticking to my strengths and playing my cards and not trying to do too much. I’m just taking what the game keeps giving me right now.”
The more than 200-point uptick in on-base percentage this homestand also has Rodríguez’s elite speed and baserunning play more often. Take his impressive slide between the catcher’s legs in a sacrifice bunt on Saturday, a play in which he was first out before Servais challenged.
“He knows that when he’s rolling, our team is better,” Servais said. “He adds a unique dynamic to our offense when he gets on base and does everything he can do.”
