Israel’s bombing of an Iranian Embassy building in Damascus, which killed senior Iranian military and intelligence officials, was a major development in the long-simmering undeclared war between Israel and Iran.
Iran has promised massive retaliation, and the risk of miscalculation is ever-present. But given the stakes for both countries, neither Israel nor Iran wants a major shooting war, even as they push for an advantage in Gaza and southern Lebanon.
Instead, the strike is a stark display of the regional nature of the conflict as Israel tries to reduce and contain Iran’s allies and proxies that threaten Israel’s security from every direction.
It is often called the “war between wars,” with Israel and Iran as the main adversaries, sparring in the shadows of more visible conflicts around the region.
The Iranian officials killed Monday were deeply committed for decades to arming and guiding proxy forces in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen as part of Iran’s clearly stated efforts to -destabilize and destroy the Jewish state.
For Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, who likely approved such a sensitive attack, the successful removal of key Iranian military personnel was a political coup. It comes at a time when demonstrations calling for his resignation have increased in intensity, while the war against Hamas continues and Israeli hostages remain in Gaza.
Demonstrating the infiltration of Iranian intelligence, Israel is trying to hit the operational side of Iran’s regional proxies, its so-called Axis of Resistance to Israel, aiming to disrupt and stop them, even as the war in Gaza continues.
Since the war began in October, Israel has begun targeting key Iranian officials responsible for relations with its proxies, not just the advanced weapons that Tehran delivers, said Ali Vaez, director of Iran project for the International Crisis Group.
But no matter how many experienced generals Israel removes, “no one is irreplaceable in the Iranian system,” he said. “Iran knows this is a dangerous game and there is a price tag attached.”
Some worry that the price could be borne by Israel’s allies. Ralph Goff, a former senior CIA officer who served in the Middle East, called the Israeli strike “incredibly reckless,” adding that “the Israelis are writing checks that the forces of US CentCom needs to be cashed in,” referring to the US military’s Central Command.
“This will only result in the escalation of Iran and its proxies, which is very dangerous” to US forces in the region who could be targeted with retaliatory strikes by Tehran’s proxies, Mr. Goff said.
Mr. Netanyahu has emphasized for years that Israel’s main adversary is Iran and that the strike could help him “rehabilitate his reputation as ‘Mr. Security,’” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House. However, it may not be enough, he said, that Israel is troubled in Gaza, Hamas is so far undefeated and Iran and its proxies are not reduced.
Iran has promised revenge and retaliation for what it calls an unprecedented attack, but, since October 7, “Iran has been clear that it does not want a regional war,” Ms. Vakil. “It sees the conflict with Israel playing out in the longer term.”
US officials do not believe that Iran initiated the Hamas attack or even knew about it in advance. However, Iran still sees Gaza as “a victory for them, because it isolates Israel and puts it on the defensive in the region and the world,” said Suzanne Maloney, director of the foreign policy program at the Brookings Institution.
The ongoing war and its civilian toll make it “almost unthinkable to create a vision in the Middle East that Israel and the US and the Saudis hope to engineer before October 7,” he said, one of the regional recognition of Israel by Arab countries opposed. to Iran’s growing influence.
However, Ms. Vakil, “this strike will be difficult for Iran to ignore,” because “it is a direct attack on its territory,” an embassy building, and killed three senior commanders of Iran’s Quds Force, the external military and intelligence. service of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.
Iran said the Israeli strike killed an Iranian general, Mohammad Reza Zahedi, along with his deputy, a third general and at least four other people, reportedly including senior Palestinian Islamic Jihad officials. , an Iranian affiliate also fighting in Gaza.
The killing of General Zahedi, who is said to be in charge of Iran’s military relations with Syria and Lebanon, is widely considered the most significant assassination of an Iranian leader in years.
Yaakov Amidror, a former Israeli national security adviser, called General Zahedi’s death “a massive blow to Iran’s immediate capabilities in the region.” He helped oversee Iran’s attempt to build a “ring of fire” around Israel through its militant proxies while keeping Tehran’s involvement at arm’s length, Mr. Amidror said.
But how and when Iran chooses to retaliate will further raise the stakes. The most obvious recent example is its response to the assassination four years ago by the United States of Qassim Suleimani, the commander of the Quds Force. Then, Iran launched a major missile attack against an American base in Iraq, but only after warning of the attack in advance. There were no immediate US casualties, although more than 100 military personnel suffered traumatic brain injuries, the Pentagon later said.
An anxious Iran, which was on high military alert, also shot down a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing 176 people, believing it to be an enemy plane.
“But one of the lessons from Suleimani is that even if you take someone critical, the network and the redundancy that Iran has established in groups remains intact,” Ms. Maloney.
Iran has recently tried to ease tensions in its relationship with the United States after a drone attack in January on a US military base on the Jordanian-Syrian border killed three American soldiers.
But Iran may be more willing to risk a military escalation with Israel.
It could make other choices – a major cyberattack on Israel’s infrastructure or its military, a barrage of rockets from southern Lebanon, a similar assassination of an Israeli commander, an attack on an Israeli embassy in another country, or another sharp acceleration of its nuclear-enrichment program.
The latter is a kind of direct objection to Mr. Netanyahu, who has long warned about the danger of a nuclear-armed Iran and vowed to prevent it from happening. (Iran has always insisted that its nuclear program is purely peaceful, even though it has enriched uranium to near weapons grade.)
Or Iran can bide its time. Mr. Amidror, Israel’s former national security adviser, said he doubted the strike would lead to a broader escalation between Israel and Iran, such as an all-out war involving Hezbollah in northern border of Israel.
“Their interests have not changed in the result. They will seek revenge, but that is different,” he said, and it need not be limited to the immediate region.
A previous example he cited was the 1992 bombing of the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires by Islamic Jihad, which killed 29 people and was in response to Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah leader Abbas al-Musawi.
Aaron Boxerman contributed reporting from Jerusalem and Eric Schmitt from Washington.
