NBA Finals 2023 – Keys to Game 5, and how the Miami Heat can keep their season alive

What will help with Miami Heat extend the NBA Finals in Game 6?

As the first team to reach the Finals via a play-in tournament, the eighth-seeded Heat are used to overcoming history stacked against them. For the stars Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Kyle Lowry & Co. to win the franchise’s first title since 2013, they’ll need to do it again, falling behind 3-1 after Friday’s loss at No. 1 seed Denver Nuggets.

While comebacks from 3-1 deficits have become more common in recent years, including the Nuggets’ pair on neutral courts in the 2020 playoffs inside the NBA bubble in Orlando, Florida, those efforts typically don’t involve of a team that has won two of its last three road games.

Since the playoffs expanded to 16 teams in 1984, and excluding the COVID-19 pandemic, teams in Miami’s position have gone 2-132 in the series, including two comebacks from Houston Rockets on top of Phoenix Suns in the 1995 Western Conference finals and the Cleveland Cavaliers on top of Golden State Warriors in the 2016 NBA Finals. Only 31 of 134 Miami forwards (23%) avoided elimination in Game 5.

After losing Games 3 and 4 at home, how can the Heat steal Monday’s Game 5 in Denver (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC) to keep their hopes alive?

Let’s look at some key factors for Miami.

Reclaim the match for the number of shots

Perhaps inspired by Florida Panthers‘ similar to the surprising run to the Stanley Cup Final, Miami coach Erik Spoelstra repeatedly referred to the playoffs the importance of getting “shots on goal” by avoiding turnovers.

Since free throws don’t count as shots on goal, I think “shot volume” is the better way to describe the non-shooting factors that help decide a game: turnovers and rebounding.

Compared to unpredictable shooting results, teams may feel more in control of how many shots they get. And while it’s not as important a factor making a shotthe number of shots is important.

During this year’s playoffs, the team with more field goal attempts — including those resulting in a trip to the free throw line — won 59% of the time (45-31).

There’s a reason why, in particular, Spoelstra highlighted the amount of shots. Miami is 8-4 (.667) with the advantage in the playoffs so far and 3-5 (.375) without it. (The Heat are 2-0 when tied.)

Two of those four shots-advantage losses came in Games 1 and 3 of this series, but getting more field goal attempts helped keep the Heat in those tough games.

Miami surrendering the shot volume battle to Denver in Game 4 with 14 turnovers — nearly as many as the previous two games combined — was a factor in the Nuggets’ easy win despite shooting 49% on 2-point attempts, which tied their lowest mark of the postseason.

Especially on the road against a Denver crowd eager to celebrate the first championship in franchise history, the Heat must avoid turnovers that allow the Nuggets to get out of transition.

Take advantage of Denver’s sagging defense

Bam Adebayo’s play from the high post was a key factor in Miami’s Game 2 win in Denver, but the Nuggets found an effective defensive counter in Game 4 by having Nikola Jokic jump on Adebayo to block the passing lanes. The move took advantage of a rule that allows a defender to legally stay in the paint longer than 3 seconds when the player he is defending has the ball.

In that role, Jokic was active with both hands (NBA Advanced Stats tracked seven deflections, more than Jokic’s six in the first three games of the Finals combined) and his feet (four kick balls). Adebayo committed seven turnovers, his most in a game since February 2021, and four of them came in situations where Jokic knelt on him.

Sagging defense is nothing new in the NBA. Interestingly, defenders often like to retreat Draymond Green when he is operating from the high post à la Adebayo. The Golden State Warriors usually responds by using Green as a screener on dribble handoffs. When the defender is not in the game, a solid screen can result in an open look for a shooter taking the handoff.

According to Second Spectrum tracking, the Heat ran 14 handoffs with Adebayo in Game 4, producing just six points. However, these handoffs served more as a setup for pick-and-roll players rather than creating immediate shot attempts. The one time a shooter came off an Adebayo handoff looking to get free for a shot, Nuggets forward Jeff Green fought on the screen to contest Duncan Robinson3-point attempt by.

Miami would be wise to focus on acquiring Robinson, Max Struss and even Gabe Vincent open shot attempts through Adebayo handoffs.

After Gordon feasted on the Heat’s smaller defenders in the first quarter of Game 1, scoring 12 points on 6-of-8 shooting, Miami adjusted early Kevin Love in Game 2 to take over the defensive assignment. Gordon scored just 23 points combined in Games 2 and 3 on 10-of-17 shooting.

But Gordon exploded offensively in Game 4. This time, he had 15 points on 6-of-7 shooting in second quarter, most of those coming at the beginning of the frame when Jokic was resting. Gordon scored eight points on 3-of-3 shooting in that span, helping Denver outscore the Heat 10-9 without the two-time MVP.

Gordon’s production at the start of the second came largely from beyond the arc, something Miami can certainly live with from a 35% 3-point shooter this season. However, it also included Love on the bench and Gordon matched up against smaller defenders in lineups with only one player taller than 6-foot-7.

One option for Spoelstra: Go back to 6-foot-7 Haywood Highsmith, who had 18 points on 7-of-10 shooting in 23 minutes in Game 1 when Love was a DNP-CD but has barely been seen since, logging a total of eight minutes over the past three contests. Highsmith only played the last 3 seconds of the first half of Game 4.

The play of Highsmith, a 34% 3-point shooter, is over Caleb Martin or Robinson means sacrificing some floor spacing. Possibly the Heat’s best strategy in this series is to lean offense-first as much as possible, hoping to catch another hot shooting night like the 17 of 35 3-point effort that earned Miami its only win of the series in Game 2.

Another option to juice up the Heat offense: guard Tyler Herothe team’s third-leading scorer in the regular season who last played in Game 1 of the opening round nearly two months ago. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reports Herro is expected to dress and try to play Monday after returning from hand surgery. Although Herro is still experiencing hand discomfort and is likely rusty, what does Miami have to lose in the face of elimination?

That’s the question the Heat’s coaching staff will have to weigh before Monday night.