Yesterday, I focused more on setting the table for the updated NBA Pre-Postseason Players Tiers before revealing Tier 3 (players ranked between 24th and 42nd) and Tier 4 (Nos. 43 -80).
Today, I’ll take a little more into some of the more interesting and/or challenging placements, as well as note some general trends.
For starters, a consistent bit of feedback — and one I’ve gotten from multiple sources since the release of Tiers 3 and 4 — is the ever-difficult test of which player is more valuable between an elite player and a good-but-not. -great primary or secondary creator. A senior analytics staffer within the league states that they prefer the entirety of Tier 4A, which consists largely of elite players or connectors, over Tier 3B, which consists of borderline All-Stars who primary.
I don’t think there is a reliable way to resolve this debate and to some degree, deciding between, say, Mikal Bridges on the one hand and Jaylen Brown on the other hand is more a function of others on their respective rosters. rather than individual players. . In that particular comparison, I think it’s entirely possible, if not likely, that both the Celtics and Nets would be better off if the two were traded!
NBA Player Tiers: ’20 | ’21 | ’22 | ‘23: T5| T4| T3 | T2 | T1 | ’24: T3&4
In some ways, this is actually an extension of the long-simmering question of how to rate sub-elite, but still very good, level on-ball players. At least to my way of thinking, there is nothing more important in the league than elite shot creation and nothing more overrated than mediocre shot creation, but finding the importance and preferences of the players in between is just difficult.
This is also, in some form, the reason to do this exercise in the first place, in determining that there is a relatively wide gap between Brown and Jayson Tatum and that the difference between Luka Dončić and Donovan Mitchell is large is a important part of roster analysis. Avoiding the cheapness of the term “franchise player,” in other words.
Another set of teammates that illustrate this dichotomy are Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner. I don’t think Banchero is an All-Star worthy this year. Through the April 10 games, there are only eight players who have scored at least 100 fewer points than they would have had a similar number of scoring attempts at the league average efficiency according to Basketball Reference, with Banchero the seventh on that list. However, to some degree, this is a result of Orlando’s lack of other creators. In my Simple Shot Quality model, his 50.2 percent projected eFG% is 24th lowest among 162 players with at least 500 tracked shots attempted this season.
But to go back, the players with the 21st, 22nd and 23rd hardest shot diets were Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Edwards and Tatum, who all significantly exceeded their expected shots of 209 (SGA, third of 162), 73 ( Edwards scored, 45th) and 151 (Tatum, 13th), while Banchero shot at his shot quality level (-3 points, 124th of 162). Should he get credit for helping keep Orlando’s offense afloat by at least being able to soak up possessions? How will he perform with more creative guard play around him? I’m not entirely sure, which is why it’s hard to rate Banchero.
Wagner, meanwhile, doesn’t have the same creative ability as Banchero, but he’s superior in most other areas — better scoring, better and more versatile defense, off ball play — in a way would make him a very plug-and-play addition to any team that already has their key creative roles filled.
Going forward, there are a few notable players that could be higher if I did mid-season tier updates. Tyrese Haliburton is one. He’s been great this year, a deserving All-Star and the driving force behind Indiana’s potent offense. But the second half of the year didn’t measure up to the first, whether as a result of nagging injuries slowing him down or defenses starting to figure him out or likely a combination of the two. This, combined with my uncertainty over how well his style would translate to the playoffs dropped him to Tier 3 when for most of the season I had him in the bottom end of Tier 2.
Damian Lillard is another player who dropped a level over the course of the season. Early in the year, it’s pretty easy to give a pass based on both the adjustment to a new team and role as well as the coaching turmoil that has swept through the Bucks for the first stretch of the season. But even though he’s shown some of his old dominance in fits and starts, like the 29 points (on 19 shot attempts) and nine assists he recorded Wednesday to lead the Bucks past the Magic despite the absence of Giannis Antetokounmpo, those performances became the exception rather than the rule. In his last four seasons in Portland, Lillard combined for 62.1 True Shooting on 31.4 Usage. In Milwaukee, his efficiency dropped to 59.3 TS in 28.4 Usage, his least efficient full season compared to league average since his rookie year. For a player who has always been a big question mark defensively, this is a worrying decline at age 33.
Of course, he could shoot the hell out of the playoffs and help drag the Bucks to the Eastern Conference finals or even the NBA Finals and prove he still belongs in the Top 20 discussion.
Speaking of the playoffs, I mentioned yesterday that there are some players who won’t easily improve their tiering until the playoffs, with Tatum, Dončić and Joel Embiid being prime examples. All three have good chances entering this year’s postseason, with Dončić in particular seemingly ready to make a run; the midseason addition of Daniel Gafford and the Mavericks’ new ability to consistently match Dončić’s creative mastery with a strong dive-and-dunk pick-and-roll partner surrounded by shooting seems to have unlocked something special.
Meanwhile, there are a few players that I already have more or less assumed playoff greatness based on past experience. Jimmy Butler and Jamal Murray didn’t exactly have banner regular seasons, but both have track records of playoff dominance.
Bouncing around a bit, I’m not sure what to make of Ja Morant and so I’m treating it as a gap year while acknowledging that he gets more scrutiny next year.
Finally, let’s talk about the big French in the room. Victor Wembanyama in Tier 2B, among the Top 14 players in the league. I don’t think he’s been All-NBA-level all season, but he’s been good enough as a rookie and has shown improvement over the year to suggest to me that he starts next season with a strong chance at all- league honors.
This growth is especially evident if you compare before and after either his transition to starting at center instead of power forward in early December or the entry of Tre Jones as a starter in early January to pair Wembanyama to a competent point guard.
First, he has been a top-five rim protector in the league since then, with a profile similar to that of Brook Lopez during that time. Meanwhile, before Jones joined the starters, Wembanyama had just a 53.3 True Shooting Percentage (on 29.9 usage), but since then, that mark has jumped to 58.5 TS% on 33.7 Usage as he has increased his assist rate by almost 50 percent. And all this with his 3-point shooting doing so much.
Of course, the numbers don’t even tell nearly the whole Wemby story as demonstrated by the near-nightly parade of “Wait, what did he do?!” highlights. While he won’t get a chance to prove himself in the playoffs this year, it seems almost inevitable that, if he can avoid injury, he’ll be knocking on Tier 1’s door soon when he’s given all he’s been blessed with. be, and more.
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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; (Photos: Michael Gonzales, Garrett Ellwood, Adam Pantozzi / NBAE via Getty)
