Russia bombarded Ukrainian ports for a fourth night in a row on Friday, hit warehouses in Odesa and stepped up a show of naval force in the Black Sea in a deepening conflict that threatens a key part of the world’s food supply.
The Kremlin this week withdrew from a year-old agreement that allowed ships carrying food from Ukrainian ports to bypass a Russian blockade, and began a concentrated bombing campaign of facilities used to ship grain and cooking oil across the Black Sea. The Russian military warned that any vessel attempting to reach Ukraine would be considered an enemy, and their countries “will be considered involved in the conflict in Ukraine on the side of the Kyiv regime.”
On Friday, Russia conducted naval exercises in the northwestern Black Sea – the part near the coast of Ukraine is still held – supporting the suggestion that it could seize or destroy cargo ships of non-combatant countries. Russia’s Defense Ministry said in a statement that a missile boat fired anti-ship cruise missiles and destroyed a “mock target” vessel, while Black Sea Fleet ships and planes “trained to isolate an area temporarily closed to navigation” and conducted a drill “to catch a mock intruder ship.”
Early morning missile strikes destroyed 100 tons of peas and 20 tons of barley at the port in Odesa, according to Oleg Kiper, the head of the regional military administration. That came two days after an attack on a port just outside Odesa destroyed 60,000 tonnes of grain to be loaded onto ships, the government said – enough to feed more than 270,000 people for a year, according to the World Food Program.
“The new wave of attacks on Ukrainian ports risks having a far-reaching impact on global food security, especially in developing countries,” Rosemary DiCarlo, under-secretary-general of the United Nations, told an emergency meeting of the Security Council on Friday. “Furthermore, as we have repeatedly said, attacks against civilian infrastructure can be a violation of international law.”
The UN humanitarian chief, Martin Griffiths, warned the council that even escalatory rhetoric threatens to increase food prices and food instability around the world. Prices rose this week, but not as quickly as they did when the war began, and economists said the impact could be serious but not as severe because global supplies are more plentiful. Ukraine boosted its overland exports, but not enough to compensate for shipping losses.
Russia would gladly renew the agreement, its representative told the UN meeting, but only if other countries lifted sanctions imposed on it for invading Ukraine 17 months ago – conditions that are unlikely to be met.
On Friday, Russia’s central bank signaled concern about its economy, especially inflation, raising its benchmark interest rate by a full percentage point, to 8.5 percent – a bigger increase than analysts had expected. The central bank expected a relatively healthy 2.5 percent economic growth this year, after a contraction of a similar rate last year. But the rebound has been fueled by the government pumping money into the economy with higher military spending, including payments to soldiers and their families, and social programs such as mortgage subsidies.
Russians have more money to spend but not enough to spend it, prompting inflation that the central bank predicts will reach 5 to 6.5 percent this year. Sanctions made it difficult for businesses to import goods, including manufacturing equipment, and the conscription or flight from the country of hundreds of thousands of people made it difficult to hire workers.
Ukraine and Russia have long produced a large part of the world’s food supply — before the war, they accounted for about a quarter of the world’s wheat and barley exports and a large share of its cooking oil, especially sunflower oil, and Russia was the largest supplier of fertilizer. Russia’s blockade of Ukraine, and Western sanctions against Russia, caused their exports to drop early last year, worsening shortages and rising prices around the world, and threatening famine in some areas, particularly in East Africa.
The Black Sea Grain Initiative, brokered in July 2022 by the United Nations and Turkey, allows ships carrying food to leave Ukrainian ports, and contains provisions to enable agricultural exports to Russia. But the Kremlin complains that the elements that benefit Russia are not sufficiently or not fully honored, keeping exports and forcing Russian producers to sell to the world at below-market prices – favoring European competitors.
For months, Moscow has made a series of demands for the continuation of the grain initiative: Allow Russia’s state-owned agricultural bank to rejoin the SWIFT messaging system that enables international transactions; ensure that foreign insurance and shipping companies can do business with Russian agricultural exporters without violating sanctions; allow Russia to continue importing spare parts for agricultural equipment; end sanctions against Russian fertilizer manufacturers and their executives; and restore a pipeline carrying Russian ammonia to Odesa.
There must be a “real and not theoretical lifting of sanctions,” Russia’s deputy ambassador to the United Nations, Dmitry Polyanskiy, told Friday’s Security Council meeting, citing some of the same demands. “Once all these conditions are met, we will immediately reach the deal.”
But Russia’s actions went beyond stalling the grain deal, threatening other Black Sea shipping and hurting Ukraine’s ability to ship food by sea in the near future, launching a series of missile and drone attacks on port facilities this week. Russian missile and artillery attacks in other parts of the country overnight killed eight people, Ukrainian officials said.
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said, “Russia by weaponizing food is doing something truly unconscionable.”
In Moscow, Sergei Vershinin, a deputy foreign minister, told reporters at a briefing that the grain deal would not be revived unless Russia’s demands were met, and that in the meantime, Russia could stop and inspect civilian ships in the Black Sea for military cargo.
On Thursday, the White House warned that Moscow may be preparing a false-flag operation to attack civilian ships and blame Ukraine. The threats brought sea traffic to a standstill in the area. Tracking data shows that ships bound for the Black Sea are sitting in ports in Istanbul, waiting to see if an agreement to resume grain shipments can be reached.
Mr. Vershinin said no talks were underway yet, but President Vladimir V. Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan were expected to discuss the issue soon.
He accused Ukraine of misusing the safe passage corridor for grain ships to launch attack drones against a naval base in Russian-occupied Crimea, and the bridge linking Crimea to Russia. Ukraine denies using the corridor for military purposes.
The Institute for the Study of War, based in Washington, wrote in an assessment published Thursday evening that “the Kremlin likely views the Black Sea Grain Initiative as one of the few remaining means of action against the West.” Russia, it added, is “attempting to create a sense of urgency by conducting escalating strikes against Ukraine’s port and grain infrastructure and threatening to strike civilian ships.”
Russia has been unsettled since last month’s failed uprising by the Wagner mercenary group against the military leadership, prompting the ouster of several top commanders and calling into question what was seen as Mr. Putin.
“For many Russians watching this, used to this image of Putin as the arbiter of order, the question is, ‘Does the emperor have no clothes?'” the CIA director, William J. Burns, said at the Aspen Security Forum on Friday, in his most extensive public comment on the uprising. “Or, at least, ‘Why did he take so long to get dressed?'”
said Mr. Burns said he expected Mr. Putin to punish the head of Wagner, Yevgeny V. Prigozhin, who remained free and unharmed.
Igor Girkin, an ultranationalist commentator who has been a pro-war critic of the way the invasion was carried out, was arrested on Friday, signaling that the kind of public dissent the government has allowed may no longer be allowed. Prosecutors accused him of spreading public appeals to engage in extremist activities, punishable by up to five years in prison, and asked a Moscow court to keep him in pretrial detention.
Belarus, Russia’s closest ally, has acquired several Wagner fighters in recent weeks, and they are training Belarusian special operations troops, the Belarusian government said Thursday. The training site is just three miles from Poland, a NATO member with deep distrust for both Belarus and Russia.
In response, Poland said on Friday it would move military forces near the border with Belarus. Mr. Putin in turn criticized Poland, saying that Russia would respond to “aggression” against Belarus “with all means at our disposal.”
Ivan Nechepurenko reported from Tbilisi, Georgia, Victoria Kim from Seoul and Farnaz Fassihi and Richard Pérez-Peña from New York. Reporting was contributed by Anatoly Kurmanaev from Berlin; Neil MacFarquhar, Like Gupta and James C. McKinley Jr. from New York; Eric Schmitt, David E. Sanger and Julian E. Barnes from Aspen, Colo.; Shashank Bengali from London and Erin Mendell from Seoul.