Former President Trump has an advantage in five of six key battleground states where he is narrowly edged by President Biden four years ago, according to new polls.
The surveys, released Monday by the New York Times, Siena College and the Philadelphia Inquirer, suggest that dissatisfaction with the economy and the Israeli-Hamas war in Gaza, and waning support for Biden among younger people, Black and Hispanic voters, “threaten. to unravel the president’s Democratic coalition.”
Biden led Trump by razor-thin margins in the 2020 election in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin to win the White House.
However, according to new polls, less than six months before Election Day, Trump leads Biden among registered voters 49%-42% in Arizona, 49%-39% in Georgia, 49%-42% in Michigan, 50%-38% in Nevada, and leads the president 47%-44% in Pennsylvania, with Biden leading in Wisconsin 47%-45%.
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Former President Trump, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, speaks at a campaign rally in Wildwood, New Jersey, on Saturday, May 11, 2024. (AP Photo/Matt Rourke)
The 2024 rematch between the Democratic president and his Republican predecessor is closer to a narrower pool of likely voters. Trump holds the lead in five states – Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin – with Biden leading in Michigan.
The surveys’ findings were similar when third-party and independent candidates were added to the mix, including Democrat-turned-independent White House contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
The longtime environmental activist and high-profile vaccine skeptic, who is the scion of the nation’s most informed political dynasty, has garnered about 10% support in six states. Polls suggested that Kennedy was drawing almost equally from both Biden and Trump.
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The new surveys, which ran from April 28 to May 9, came as Trump made history as the first current or former president to stand trial on a criminal charge. Additionally, they were also conducted amid the Biden campaign’s massive ad blitz in key battleground states.
However, “the polls offer little indication that any of these developments have helped Mr. Biden, hurt Mr. Trump or assuaged voter discontent,” the New York Times wrote. York Times.
President Biden walks on the tarmac as he arrives at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on Friday, May 10, 2024, in SeaTac, Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)
Surveys show that voters are dissatisfied and itching for change. Nearly seven in 10 said the country’s political and economic systems need major changes, or should be completely dismantled.
Nearly three-quarters said they believed Trump would bring big changes if he won in November, compared with less than a quarter who said the same thing about the president.
Polls also show Trump is making gains among voters who overwhelmingly supported Biden four years ago.
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Trump and Biden are roughly tied among voters 18–29 years old and Hispanic voters. Polls also suggest the former president is pulling in more than 20% of Black voters’ support, which, if it stands on Election Day, would be the highest level of Black voter support for a GOP presidential nominee for generations.
Polls suggest the economy continues to drag Biden down. Even as jobs are rising and the stock market is booming, inflation remains a key issue for voters, though it has cooled over the past year. More than half of those surveyed said they believe the economy is still “difficult.”
President Biden, left, and former President Trump. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon/Curtis Means/DailyMail.com via AP, Pool)
However, the president remains controversial, as surveys point to Biden standing with older voters and White voters, who polls highlight “are less likely to demand fundamental changes to the system and more likely to say that democracy is the most important issue for their vote.”
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Abortion remains a potential problem for Trump. Nearly two-thirds of voters asked in the polls say abortion should always or mostly be legal, including 44% of those who support the former president.
More than 4,000 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were asked in the polls, with an overall sampling error for all respondents of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points. The margin of error in the six states ranged from plus or minus 3.6 to 4.6 percentage points.
Get the latest updates from the 2024 campaign trail, exclusive interviews and more in our Fox News Digital election hub.
