The Denver Broncos’ decision to release star safety Justin Simmons could easily be dismissed as collateral damage and a regrettable but necessary step toward recalibrating their salary cap.
But digging deeper, a trend seems to be forming at Simmons’ position, as a group of safeties have flooded the free-agent market with teams seemingly prioritizing other roster spots. Kevin Byard, Jordan Poyer, Jamal Adams, Eddie Jackson, Quandre Diggs, Rayshawn Jenkins and Marcus Maye were all cut (or designated a post-June 1 cut in Maye’s case) while Antoine Winfield Jr. was franchise tagged by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Kyle Dugger was transition tagged by the New England Patriots and Xavier McKinney was not tagged in any capacity by the New York Giants.
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There was a brief moment Tuesday when McKinney appeared to be in a prime position to monopolize the top level of the safety market in free agency. But within 48 hours, he stood shoulder to shoulder with more peers than he probably expected.
Supply is in line to exceed demand, which could lower the value of the position. It probably won’t be as dramatic as the sinking running backs market, but seven personnel executives and coaches around the NFL said The Athletic something develops, even if it becomes a short-term trend.
“(It’s part of a) larger financial trend,” one executive said. “The market has been too high for the overall impact of the position.”
To be fair, it’s impossible to separate Simmons’ release from quarterback Russell Wilson, whose release would result in $85 million in dead cap space against the Broncos. Simmons, 30, may no longer be at the top of his game, but opposing teams still view him as one of the best safeties in the game, and his leadership is impeccable. But the $14.5 million in cap savings is significant for a team in deep financial trouble after Wilson’s release. The Broncos will have a series of difficult contractual decisions to make until Wilson’s money is gone.
“(Simmons) is too expensive considering everything they have to do,” one coach said. “Russell Wilson is an expensive divorcee.”
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In that respect, Simmons’ release is unique.
But that’s not the whole story. For all of Simmons’ positive attributes, some of the executives recognized why he didn’t deserve a cap hit, and the argument focused more on the position as a whole.
As the league has become more competitive, teams have been more inclined to overspend on quarterbacks, wide receivers, offensive tackles, edge rushers, cornerbacks and defensive tackles.
They had to cut other positions as a result, whether it was running back, inside linebacker or safety. Of course, there are always exceptions, but that has been the general model. As of Thursday morning, more than $100 million in 2024 cash salary falls to the safety position, according to Over The Cap’s Nick Korte. That was the most position at nearly $40 million.
This shit is crazy! There is no loyalty for anything or anyone in this league!
Dude was always an All Pro and Pro Bowler and a Denver staple!! What is really going on with this exodus to the safeties?? https://t.co/JeqMkGiEgG— Nino (@qdiggs6) March 7, 2024
As one executive pointed out, there was a thin pool of safeties in free agency in 2023, and Jessie Bates (four years, $64 million in Atlanta) was the only player to get a massive contract. Carolina’s Vonn Bell, Cleveland’s Juan Thornhill and Dallas’ Donovan Wilson are the only others to sign deals worth at least $20 million in total money. Those four are among nine safeties signed for at least $6 million annually.
“While the market is not nearly as strong (in 2023), you see teams not willing to pay,” one executive said. “I think we’re going to see a trend of teams not wanting to overpay for this position.”
Philosophically, what’s happening may be more similar to what happened to linebackers than to running backs. To a certain extent, smart defensive coordinators have devised ways to make safeties and linebackers interchangeable commodities in specific packages. And some of the better slot cornerbacks have taken on safety responsibilities, either in a game-plan role or on a full-time basis.
Meanwhile, running backs have become easier to find in the draft, and younger players with less mileage are becoming valuable commodities at a position where injuries take their toll, especially when there’s usually only one on the field. one chance.
This actually produced a counterpoint. It’s pretty rare for a rookie safety to make an impact, so the veteran market should be more attractive in that sense. It may not be visible, but it’s usually not hard to tell which cornerbacks are affected by the play of the safety around them, for better or worse.
“You’re often looking for defensive coordinators who can convert (players) to safety because there aren’t enough,” one executive said. “Which you would think would make the NFL (veteran) more valuable, but that’s not the case.”
Some of what happened this week may have been a coincidence — or at least not indicative of a larger trend about the position. Of the eight aforementioned safeties released recently, seven are on the wrong side of 30. Adams, apart from that, has an extensive injury history and has played just 10 games over the last two seasons.
Meanwhile, of the 10 safeties on multiyear deals worth at least $10 million annually, Minnesota’s Harrison Smith is the only player older than 30. As with any other position, teams are more willing to give of market setting contracts for their younger players. Winfield and Dugger will soon make sure to further tilt those numbers in the youth’s favor when they make their tags extensions. McKinney is a candidate to join the $10 million club as well.
So while the trend certainly seems to be emerging, there are various reasons to explain why so many safeties have flooded the market recently. Teams prioritize the more impactful positions, but age and cap casualties don’t discriminate anywhere on the depth chart.
“Because there are so many (safeties) out there, teams don’t feel the need to overpay,” said one coach. “But I don’t see any long-term survival trend to pay less like what happened in the run-back market.”
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(Justin Simmons photo: Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
