A preview of the NATO summit
Leaders of NATO countries are preparing for a two-day meeting starting tomorrow in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania.
Ukraine will be a major issue. The war there had raged for more than 500 days, and the counteroffensive was moving slowly. Ukraine wants to join NATO, but President Biden said yesterday that it was “premature” to start the process of joining the country in the middle of a war.
I spoke with Steven Erlanger, our chief diplomatic correspondent in Europe, about what we can expect from the meeting.
Amelia: What do NATO allies hope to achieve at this summit?
Steve: The main task of this NATO summit is to show the unity and solidarity of the alliance in support of Ukraine.
It’s full of the most gassy rhetoric you can imagine. But it’s also important because Russia believes, we think, that it can wait for Western support for Ukraine. And really the main task of this summit is to tell President Vladimir Putin: “That will not happen.”
What will you watch at the summit?
For me, the most important thing to happen is the political sign off on NATO’s new military plans to deter Russia and defend NATO territory.
After Russia annexed Crimea, in 2014, NATO set up four of these enhanced forward battalions in Poland and the three Baltic countries with 1,200 or more multinational troops in each country, like a tripwire. After February 2022, when the war started, NATO put more in the rest of the eastern part. In total, only about 10,300 troops.
So part of the plan is to add 4,000 to 5,000 troops quickly to these countries, in case of an emergency.
There is an open question whether NATO will extend membership to Ukraine. Do you expect it to move?
NATO will not offer Ukraine membership in Vilnius. That won’t happen.
A possible compromise, which is clearly not enough for the Ukrainians, is that Ukraine will be promised that like Sweden and Finland, it can enter NATO without going through a membership action plan. But that doesn’t give Ukraine a time frame for when it will become a member.
We expect Ukraine to upgrade its relationship with NATO in the form of a council. A council would give Ukrainians a chance to sit in on every NATO meeting that matters. That is very important. Ukraine can sit in almost all NATO meetings and in the council will have equal status with other members.
How do you think NATO will deal with China?
I don’t think the communiqué will be very different from last year’s Madrid declaration, when NATO labeled China a “challenge” for the first time.
In terms of NATO, that’s really about trying to make sure the alliance is aware of threats to trans-Atlantic relations. That includes Arctic routes, China’s industrial espionage and not being too dependent on China for basic materials.
But NATO is not about to establish itself in Asia. The French reiterated quite strongly that NATO is a trans-Atlantic organization and that it should not interfere in Asia – and that Europe’s interests in Asia are not exactly the same as America’s interests.
Yellen wrapped up the visit to China
After 10 hours of meetings over two days in Beijing, Janet Yellen, the treasury secretary, said the US and China would have more frequent communications at the highest level. At a news conference yesterday, he said he believed the countries were on a stable footing, despite “significant disagreements.”
The desire for more dialogue strikes some analysts as a significant development, but many experts in both China and the US caution against expecting much change. Notably, Yellen left Beijing yesterday without announcing breakthroughs or agreements to mend the ongoing rift between the two countries.
Details: Yellen was warmly welcomed in Beijing. She had lunch with a group of Chinese women economists and entrepreneurs. Yellen also met with Chinese experts on climate finance. Chinese state media wrote about him wonderful use of chopsticks.
North Korean defectors are struggling to escape to China
Most North Korean defectors try to reach South Korea via China. But Beijing’s ever-expanding surveillance state has made evading the authorities more difficult.
China uses its powerful surveillance technology to catch people on the run or track down unauthorized foreigners. When China detains fleeing North Koreans, it often treats them as illegal migrants, not refugees, deporting them back to the north to face punishment.
Vivek Ramaswamy is a Republican presidential candidate in the US — and a practicing Hindu. He is trying to win over conservative Christian voters, who make up a large part of the party’s core electorate, by saying the faiths have commonalities. But for many religious conservatives, the difference is an obstacle.
Survivors: Yan Mingfu, who became Mao’s interpreter, tried to find a peaceful way out of the 1989 standoff between the Chinese Communist Party and student protesters in Tiananmen Square. He died at the age of 91.
ART AND IDEAS
A doomed video game love affair
Seema Ghulam Haider, a married Pakistani, fell in love with Sachin Meena, an Indian man, in 2019 while they were playing the popular online game PUBG. He is Muslim; he is Hindu. A few years later, she entered India with her four children to be with him.
But their time together was short. Last week, Haider and his children were arrested for illegally entering the country. Meena and her father were also arrested, on charges that fell short of conspiracy to harbor an enemy. The men could face years in prison.
The couple’s love affair sparked nationalist intrigue in both India and Pakistan. It also involves a religious debate: Interfaith relations, especially between Hindus and Muslims, are a minefield in both countries. Tensions were so high that even suspicious pigeons crossing the border ended up in detention on espionage charges.
PLAY, WATCH, EAT
What to Cook
That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — Amelia
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